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PS2 will remain the best selling console of all time by the end of this gen

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Metallicube said:
Sure, PS2 will remain the highest selling console, if you don't count the DS as a console :P

Anyway, I never expected Wii to pull off PS2 like numbers. Hell I was pleasantly surprised when it even passed NES's numbers. What I didn't expect however was for its sales to drop off so quickly and drastically. Though I guess with virtually no real third party support it does make sense in retrospect. Oh well, it'll still crack that illusive 100 million mark at least, and most likely pass the Playstation 1, which is quite an accomplishment in itself.


I don't know about that.  PS1 had about 105 million.  I think Wii will get above 100 million especially with a cut to $99.  However I don't think the $130 cut will help much.




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Metallicube said:
Sure, PS2 will remain the highest selling console, if you don't count the DS as a console :P

Anyway, I never expected Wii to pull off PS2 like numbers. Hell I was pleasantly surprised when it even passed NES's numbers. What I didn't expect however was for its sales to drop off so quickly and drastically. Though I guess with virtually no real third party support it does make sense in retrospect. Oh well, it'll still crack that illusive 100 million mark at least, and most likely pass the Playstation 1, which is quite an accomplishment in itself.

"Most likely Pass the Playstation 1"

You would have been drawn and quartered for saying "most likely" even a year ago lol.  Looking back on things after the chaos can be funny as hell



Mummelmann said:


This has always puzzled me. A lot of people post charts and refer to trends and history to show that they're right, history shows nothing and trends change but some are blind to this, it seems. A perfect example is how everyone was always citing that the Wii was tracking above the PS2 within the same time window, some people (I was one of them) tried to maintain that the Wii is not the PS2, the differences are vast, really vast. The Wii was late to the party, did not come off of a successful predecessor, never achieved such massive marketshare, had virtually no 3rd party support and it was technically completely inferior to the others and is/was acting in a market that is not only increasing in pace but also diverging and branching out (they even aimed specifically at that very audience).

And here we are, years later, Nintendo are close to launching their new console, despite many saying that they would never ever launch first in the 8th gen. They never snagged the 3rd party support they were assured to get since they became the market leader in sales. Nintendo did kill the console prematurely, despite insistence that this would not happen since they were doing so well. They also cut the price several times, despite people claiming they didn't have to, they released all the savior software and released colored consoles, to no avail. The whole running joke and ridicule surrounding the "the Wii will suddenly just stop selling" has come eerily close to truth. 50% marketshare remained illusive and ultimately impossible. And, of course, it will never outsell the PS2 (perhaps not even the PS1). China and India weren't the savior either (they were never going to be, that much made sense).

All in all, the hardcore Nintendo fans on this site have been more consistently wrong than anyone else in vgchartz history since none of their predictions have reached fruition. And these were the people who were the most self-assured, confident and condescending on the boards all along, laughing at everyone who dared question their stats and charts and trends and history lessons (I've learned the same history but have drawn different conclusions based on it; i.e, I've been delusional and practiced wishful thinking). One can also note that the worst offenders have all but left the site and refuse to speak on the matter at all, a true gentleman can not only admit to being wrong but also discuss the grounds surrounding the whole issue. This is how one evolves as a debater.

On a personal note, here are some things that I have said and predicted over the past five years;

"The Wii is a sprinter, not a marathon runner." "Historical sales curve might indicate a historical decline." "The Wii will never reach 50% marketshare." "The Wii audience is more fickle than those of the HD twins." "The Wii will never outsell the PS2." "Nintendo will be the first to release their next console." "The next generation will start in 2012."

And there are more things. I've been wrong on many occassions as well but I never raised the stakes to the level of some others and I never stated anything as assured or fact, simply as my opinion based on my own view on things (or as some have called it over the years; "wishful thinking", because if you thought differently, you were delusional. Yes, that very phrase was thrown around a lot in here at times).

In closing, I would like to add something; I used to see the Wii as the enemy of modern and future gaming, I really and honestly did. I don't any more, my view on that matter has completely shifted and fallen upon the Hollywood-esque Press Win Button Watered Down Ghost of the Past gameplay fronted and carried by the HD consoles. I am not a hater, but I do advice everyone to be a bit more humble when predicting things and also when analysing and countering other peoples' predictions.

Because, X event and Y event may strike at any given moment.

I completely disagree with your logic. If someone makes an irrational prediction, that person is effectively a madman and deserves all the hell he gets, regardless of whether or not it turns out to be true.

Suppose I tell you that a normal coin will always land on heads, no matter what. I assert this statement and make the prediction that, if you flip your coin, it'll land on heads, no matter how many times you try. I don't care about your freaking logic; just try and use evidence to disprove me. At this point, a coin is flipped, over and over, landing on heads each time. Of course, this is unlikely as hell and I had no rational basis for predicting this, but nevertheless, my prediction is right. Does that make you a moron for trying to tell me that I'm delusional to think that a coin will always land on heads? I don't think so.

The same logic applies to this prediction about the Wii. Sure, it turned out to be closer to reality than most predictions at the time, but that doesn't mean that he didn't deserve hell for it. Now, if he had properly listed reasons for the Wii's failure, saying that Nintendo will release no more blockbusters like NSMBWii and that third parties will never be attracted to it, in spite of its sales, then we should be worshipping him and serving crow to all his haters. Notice the OP, though. You see any well thought out argument that turned out to accurately reflect reality? Not really. He says that PS2 sold lots and Wii will sell less, even though it's tracking ahead. Why? 'Cause it will.

Now, I'm not sure about the OP, but the rationale for just about all these Wii doom predictions pre-2011 was the same, "Nintendo is for kiddies and hardcore's where it's at! You'll see; even though Wii has completely destroyed all records so far, I'm sure Nintendo will pay and the stupid Wii fad will die!" I'm afraid that such an argument, regardless of whether or not it yields the correct result, is absolute nonsense.

I'm not necessarily saying that you had such an argument since I'll concede that you're fairly rational and calm about this, but the vast majority of predictions about Wii's doom had a fanboyish basis. I mean, the entirety of your predictions that you've listed is just assertions (unless you had the right reasoning but haven't listed it), with the Wii users are fickle part being a thinly veiled dig at Wii's audience, in all likelyhood. Since you admit to having disliked Nintendo at some point, you can't blame people for thinking that you just hated Nintendo and were venting this through pessimistic predictions and therefore giving you hell for it.

Of course, your main issue with this whole thing seems to be the fact that you think Nintendo fanboys have been more assertive and arrogant about their predictions. That, I'm afraid, is horribly subjective and is likely to be affected by the fact that you hated Nintendo, which meant that you saw more evil in the Nintendo fanbase than anywhere else. As someone with Nintendo-tinted specs, I can tell you that in all the time I've been here (and I've been lurking here for a hell of a long time, not to mention all the old threads I've looked at), Sony fans have consistently been far more arrogant than Nintendo fans. This just goes to demonstrate that this point is moot since we're both probably very biased.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Immortal said:
Mummelmann said:


This has always puzzled me. A lot of people post charts and refer to trends and history to show that they're right, history shows nothing and trends change but some are blind to this, it seems. A perfect example is how everyone was always citing that the Wii was tracking above the PS2 within the same time window, some people (I was one of them) tried to maintain that the Wii is not the PS2, the differences are vast, really vast. The Wii was late to the party, did not come off of a successful predecessor, never achieved such massive marketshare, had virtually no 3rd party support and it was technically completely inferior to the others and is/was acting in a market that is not only increasing in pace but also diverging and branching out (they even aimed specifically at that very audience).

And here we are, years later, Nintendo are close to launching their new console, despite many saying that they would never ever launch first in the 8th gen. They never snagged the 3rd party support they were assured to get since they became the market leader in sales. Nintendo did kill the console prematurely, despite insistence that this would not happen since they were doing so well. They also cut the price several times, despite people claiming they didn't have to, they released all the savior software and released colored consoles, to no avail. The whole running joke and ridicule surrounding the "the Wii will suddenly just stop selling" has come eerily close to truth. 50% marketshare remained illusive and ultimately impossible. And, of course, it will never outsell the PS2 (perhaps not even the PS1). China and India weren't the savior either (they were never going to be, that much made sense).

All in all, the hardcore Nintendo fans on this site have been more consistently wrong than anyone else in vgchartz history since none of their predictions have reached fruition. And these were the people who were the most self-assured, confident and condescending on the boards all along, laughing at everyone who dared question their stats and charts and trends and history lessons (I've learned the same history but have drawn different conclusions based on it; i.e, I've been delusional and practiced wishful thinking). One can also note that the worst offenders have all but left the site and refuse to speak on the matter at all, a true gentleman can not only admit to being wrong but also discuss the grounds surrounding the whole issue. This is how one evolves as a debater.

On a personal note, here are some things that I have said and predicted over the past five years;

"The Wii is a sprinter, not a marathon runner." "Historical sales curve might indicate a historical decline." "The Wii will never reach 50% marketshare." "The Wii audience is more fickle than those of the HD twins." "The Wii will never outsell the PS2." "Nintendo will be the first to release their next console." "The next generation will start in 2012."

And there are more things. I've been wrong on many occassions as well but I never raised the stakes to the level of some others and I never stated anything as assured or fact, simply as my opinion based on my own view on things (or as some have called it over the years; "wishful thinking", because if you thought differently, you were delusional. Yes, that very phrase was thrown around a lot in here at times).

In closing, I would like to add something; I used to see the Wii as the enemy of modern and future gaming, I really and honestly did. I don't any more, my view on that matter has completely shifted and fallen upon the Hollywood-esque Press Win Button Watered Down Ghost of the Past gameplay fronted and carried by the HD consoles. I am not a hater, but I do advice everyone to be a bit more humble when predicting things and also when analysing and countering other peoples' predictions.

Because, X event and Y event may strike at any given moment.

I completely disagree with your logic. If someone makes an irrational prediction, that person is effectively a madman and deserves all the hell he gets, regardless of whether or not it turns out to be true.

Suppose I tell you that a normal coin will always land on heads, no matter what. I assert this statement and make the prediction that, if you flip your coin, it'll land on heads, no matter how many times you try. I don't care about your freaking logic; just try and use evidence to disprove me. At this point, a coin is flipped, over and over, landing on heads each time. Of course, this is unlikely as hell and I had no rational basis for predicting this, but nevertheless, my prediction is right. Does that make you a moron for trying to tell me that I'm delusional to think that a coin will always land on heads? I don't think so.

The same logic applies to this prediction about the Wii. Sure, it turned out to be closer to reality than most predictions at the time, but that doesn't mean that he didn't deserve hell for it. Now, if he had properly listed reasons for the Wii's failure, saying that Nintendo will release no more blockbusters like NSMBWii and that third parties will never be attracted to it, in spite of its sales, then we should be worshipping him and serving crow to all his haters. Notice the OP, though. You see any well thought out argument that turned out to accurately reflect reality? Not really. He says that PS2 sold lots and Wii will sell less, even though it's tracking ahead. Why? 'Cause it will.

Now, I'm not sure about the OP, but the rationale for just about all these Wii doom predictions pre-2011 was the same, "Nintendo is for kiddies and hardcore's where it's at! You'll see; even though Wii has completely destroyed all records so far, I'm sure Nintendo will pay and the stupid Wii fad will die!" I'm afraid that such an argument, regardless of whether or not it yields the correct result, is absolute nonsense.

I'm not necessarily saying that you had such an argument since I'll concede that you're fairly rational and calm about this, but the vast majority of predictions about Wii's doom had a fanboyish basis. I mean, the entirety of your predictions that you've listed is just assertions (unless you had the right reasoning but haven't listed it), with the Wii users are fickle part being a thinly veiled dig at Wii's audience, in all likelyhood. Since you admit to having disliked Nintendo at some point, you can't blame people for thinking that you just hated Nintendo and were venting this through pessimistic predictions and therefore giving you hell for it.

Of course, your main issue with this whole thing seems to be the fact that you think Nintendo fanboys have been more assertive and arrogant about their predictions. That, I'm afraid, is horribly subjective and is likely to be affected by the fact that you hated Nintendo, which meant that you saw more evil in the Nintendo fanbase than anywhere else. As someone with Nintendo-tinted specs, I can tell you that in all the time I've been here (and I've been lurking here for a hell of a long time, not to mention all the old threads I've looked at), Sony fans have consistently been far more arrogant than Nintendo fans. This just goes to demonstrate that this point is moot since we're both probably very biased.

There's been way too many accusations about arrogance for both Sony and Nintendo fans.  While I've only seen Nintendo primarily acting like this, that's proabably because I only really got into these gaming forums in 08 or so.  I can't tell you how many times bad news for Nintendo has come out and I see "In Nintendo Wii trust" like they can do no wrong on IGN.  These types of fans are hipsters however who will go with whatever is most popular at any particular time.  In the PS1 and 2 days they went with Sony, then they were 360 fans for a little until the Wii came out, and finally they migrated to the Wii and acted like Nintendo was the only company that knew what gaming was.  

In America the 360 is the hipster console.  Once I start breaking down exclusives and telling them that my online is free they have no retort.  Normally it's just misinformation.  They don't know about the awesome exclusives for one other than Uncharted or GT.  Also they seem to think COD and Netflix are exclusive to 360.

If something is popular then the hipsters will come and the entire fanbase will get a bad reputation.  I've always loved Sony and Nintendo's consoles and I think they deserve everything they get.  I hate the 360 and its emphasis on online, timed exclusives and content, and being more of a cable box than a console.  I wish SEGA would replace Microsoft.  I love Nintendo as a pillar in the industry that always reminds us that gameplay is king with senstational franchises that have been around since NES.  I love Sony for all the new IPs it creates each gen, the free online push, and great customer services like PS+.  These companies are about the gamer just like SEGA was (and still is only as a software company) while I think MS just didn't want people to start using Sony operating systems once consoles got advanced enough.  They seem to trick consumers into believing they have the cheaper option and Sony marketing should respond.  A system at $200 isn't really cheaper when you need the overpriced proprietary tech to actually save anything on it.  Also you have to pay $60 a year for any online even if you already pay for an online service available on it.  Also just because you get a game or DLC a week before the other console doesn't mean you have an exclusive.  It's like they just go for the dumbest people and win because of it.  I just hope Sony gets their marketing fixed and exposes Microsoft next gen.




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

Duke of Playstation Plus

Warden of Platformers

runqvist said:
ethomaz said:

the2real4mafol said:

That's very impressive sales for a 12 year gaming machine

I think no other console will have this success again... if Wii can't I think no other can.

360 and ps3 have a better chance to do that than Wii.

I'm not too sure about that, but i think the current gen consoles can all reach 100 million each at least



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

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Immortal said:

I completely disagree with your logic. If someone makes an irrational prediction, that person is effectively a madman and deserves all the hell he gets, regardless of whether or not it turns out to be true.

There were a lot of people predicting this with good basis. There are some general guidelines for countering their points, here is some examples with claim and the reply it received. Just generalisations, do note that.

 

Casuals might lose interest in Wii  - "lol wii is a fad, hardcore hater"

Even though wii is the market leader, it lacks of third party games - "there are plenty of upcoming great games -> wait for the game X -> who needs third party games anyway" I could go on and on about this part, which happens to be the most important one.

As hd adoption rate gets higher, hd consoles will sell more. Wii is not powerful enough.  - " Wii has proven that people don't care about graphics"

Wii has a terrible online system - "Who needs online, only hardcorez"

 

When it comes to third party games, people should have been able to see that the wii is not going to get the same kind of third party support as the ps2. It just lacked the horsepower for multiplats and did not have big enough market share to do it alone. Without the games, it was clear that Wii was not going to keep on selling like it did.

 

 

 

 

 



If Wii sales continue to decline, the system probably won´t make it to a $99 pricecut. Why? Well, imagine Gamestop or Walmart decide to discontinue selling the Wii and it´s faster off the market than Nintendo wants it to be.



runqvist said:

There were a lot of people predicting this with good basis. There are some general guidelines for countering their points, here is some examples with claim and the reply it received. Just generalisations, do note that.

 

Casuals might lose interest in Wii  - "lol wii is a fad, hardcore hater"

Even though wii is the market leader, it lacks of third party games - "there are plenty of upcoming great games -> wait for the game X -> who needs third party games anyway" I could go on and on about this part, which happens to be the most important one.

As hd adoption rate gets higher, hd consoles will sell more. Wii is not powerful enough.  - " Wii has proven that people don't care about graphics"

Wii has a terrible online system - "Who needs online, only hardcorez"

 

When it comes to third party games, people should have been able to see that the wii is not going to get the same kind of third party support as the ps2. It just lacked the horsepower for multiplats and did not have big enough market share to do it alone. Without the games, it was clear that Wii was not going to keep on selling like it did.

 

 

 

 

 


I won't deny that there must have been some people predicting this with good basis. This prediction in particular, though, evidently didn't have any justification. Which is why I think that we needn't give him our sympathies or serve crow to those who ridiculed him.

As far as your points go, the third party games one seems to be the only significant argument. It's very doubtful that the other factors actually played much of a role in Wii's decline. And, honestly, this generation was pretty much revolutionary in terms of third party stubbornness, for lack of a better word. Can you really blame people for thinking that third parties would eventually flock to the console that is way cheaper, way easier to develop for and way more popular, albeit much weaker? I mean, as long as their primary motive is profits, I'd've thought that third parties would go along making cheaper and graphically weaker games on the Wii instead of putting as much effort into the HD consoles as they did.

We had pretty much the same situation with the DS, didn't we? That made it all the more likely that Wii would follow.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

considering the failure rate of PS2 (lol) vs how reliable the DS is (those things just don't die) I would say that the installl base of DS is already bigger than that of the PS2

anyway - big props to OP - best failed thread in a while



If you thought the Nintendo fans were harsh in this thread you should have seen the threads in 2008. One guy (thibje I think) got reported tens of times because he believed the Wii will not reach 50% marketshare. I never found that thread again :s..