Locked: The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

rocketpig said:
OriGin said:
I don't see what the problem is with adjusting numbers to what NPD release publically...

Because ioi doesn't think they're right. There's nothing more to it than that.

That doesn't fly with me... but oh well i don't run this website. 


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Doesn't fly with you??

Listen. I am not saying NPD are purposely undertracking anything. They get raw data, they extrapolate it and release results. They have been doing this for many years and have long established models now. They take x, add it to y and z, multiply by w and scale by v. They do it every month with the same data.

What I am saying is that looking back over the last year, 2 years I see patterns of discrepancy and differences in tracking. We are aiming to match what we feel are the actual sales figures, which can be inferred and in some places directly obtained via manufacturer reports and so on. We aim to hit those amounts, not NPD amounts. Just happens that on some consoles NPD see bigger discrepancies than others - that is their problem not ours.

Most important thing for vgchartz is to be internally consistent. We collect our data and apply the same methods month on month. As TheSource said, any monthly errors will cancel and right themselves over time, but I am not (and for the record haven't over the last 2-3 months) adjusting our data willy nilly every time NPD or whoever releases theirs - it just messes up our extrapolations the next month and the month after then, we keep yo-yo ing up and down.

I'm not sure why people complain so much of the "timing", what is so special this month?


Because you've always adjusted in the past, and this site has copped a lot of flak in comments from NPD and from other websites...

It seems to me that apart form the - few - people who visit here regularly and understand what you are trying to do this site is seen overall as a joke.

Saying 'we think our data is better than NPDs' just doesn't sit right with myself - I'm a long time supporter of this site, and I don't believe there is any illegality with using NPD's public numbers - it's the same as the many people on GAF who track NPD numbers only each month.

I understand what you are trying to do, but I still think that NPD should be used as a benchmark for accuracy... 200k is TOO MUCH. I know you don't want to look like you're 'copying' NPD's numbers but its the best way to get closest to the industry accepted number.

NPD does do all of those things and multiplications etc etc but their data source is much better and like I said before, the major companies WOULD NOT subscribe to them unless there is some parity with their own internally tracked numbers.

That's just my 2c I know you're not going to change anything because I don't like the way you're doing it just 'out of the blue' this month (after the whole NPD isn't going to disclose data shenanigans).

You're comment "what is so special this month?" - Come on, can you seriously believe that?

superchunk said:
Nice. Go vgchartz, the premier place for Video Games sales tracking on the web.

Why do people think that because you are paying for it, it must be better? That's just stupid. I think vgchartz is just as reliable as anything NPD puts out, and its free.

I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment.

Who says NPD is the holy grail? The Alpha and the Omega? The fact ioi & friends get numbers like this with a much smaller set of info sources means that pound for pound this site is actually better.

It would put a big smile on my face to see VGChartz's figures be quoted in press rather than NPD's.

I'm pulling for this place to become the premier destination for international videogame sales. And with every step I hope the place gets more and more support to refine their processes and expand their reach. VGChartz in different languages read by Asia, Europe, South America, North America, Africa, Australia and even Anarctica.

I see big things for this place within 10 years and am rooting for this underdog to become top dog one day. You should all do the same.

John Lucas 

Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot



ioi said:
-These do not include Canada sales
-Star Wars Battlefront: Renegade Squadron is a pack in
-DS hardware is intentionally 10% or so higher
-Guitar Hero III on 360 presumably has a stand alone version as well, so not as different as it first looks.

I believe NPD have been undertracking Xbox360 for the last few months so I'm pretty happy with the comparisons - we are intentionally tracking higher than NPD on 360.

Note - I WILL NOT be making any major alterations to our figures in light of NPDs information. Most software is actually almost identical and it is 360 software we disagree most on.

 Can we see VG US only numbers (excluding Canada)? That may help with some of the misunderstandings.


If NPD has been undertracking 360 for the past 3 months then VG has been seriously undertracking it since in July August and September VG was 10% to 15% below NPD for 360 ... 

360 numbers for:

July -  VG 136K vs. NPD 183K - http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=510

August -  VG 271K vs NPD 303K - http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=531

September -  VG 521K vs. NPD 579K - http://www.vgchartz.com/news/index.php?start=70

So is the "overtracking" by VG in October an effort to make up for the Undertracking by VG in July - September? If so it sould seem to be a better methodology to adjust historical data rather than pad current #'s. 

ioi - "I have always endorsed NPD and have always conceded that their figures are obviously far more accurate than ours ..." - Posted on: 06/14/07, 22:22


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whatever said:
The other place where NPD makes ALOT more sense is in the GHIII sales. I was shocked at how high 360 and how low PS2 sales were.

It just makes sense that the PS2 sales are >= 360 sales.

 Actually, this is an indication that vgchartz could be more accurate. GH2 first-week sales were much higher for 360 than PS2.

Although I see the logic behind not updating the numbers for Xbox360 and DS, I can't comprehend why for example you will not update Wii numbers? The estimation here at Vgchartz is 512k for canada + us (+ central and south america maybe?) while the estimation at NPD for the US is 519k, unless you really beleive that regarding the Wii your estimates are better?
Any thoughts?

We are not adjusting any numbers. We feel our numbers are good, based on sound methods and from a large and varied enough data source to be statistically sound.

Let me make a simple point.

Say there are two retailers - retailer A and B.

One tracking service gets data for 5% of each. Retailer A says the hardware sold 5,000 units, retailer B 2,500 units (from this 5% of total stores). This tracking service estimates that a total of 100,000 units were sold at retailer A as a whole and 50,000 at retailer B by simply scaling up. So they say 150,000.

The second tracking service gets all data from retailer A and none from retailer B. Retailer A actually sold 105,000 units in total (not the 100,000 estimated by the first tracking source). Past data shows that retailer B as a whole is 75% the size of retailer A, so they estimate 78,750 units for retailer B. Giving a total of 183,750.

In reality the number is 105,000 for retailer A and 55,000 for retailer B - 160,000.

Which method of tracking gave the best results?

Of course I have purposely skewed the data to support my point, but it is not inconceivable that using many small sources of data could be better than fewer sources of complete data.


Who is we? There are more guys like you?



Wow, just saw these numbers, hope it all flattens out.

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