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Locked: The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

How accurate do they really have to be Zucas, on a monthly basis they can be more off than you seem to think without any concern, they can chalk it up to eroor based on sampling, not to mention they also don't have anyone checking them on a constant basis to tell them if their data is off, no one's saying that they totally pull numbers from thin air, but you shouldn't believe that they are 100% accurate



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Guys everyone here doesn't give NPD enough credit for the accuracy of their data... they would have to be accurate.

The reason for NPD is because they collect all of the information from competitors...

You don't think that Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft track what retailers sell themselves??? You've got to be kidding.  They have accounts with all retailers, and the retailers need to order stock when they run out... they know the numbers with which they sell.

Nintendo Sony and Microsoft know what their own numbers are from retailers directly - I know this for fact - NPD then provides them with the competitor information.  If this information wasn't similar or accurate within 5 or 10% of their internal tracking numbers then they would not longer subscribe to the NPD service.

And for whoever said that NPD doesn't report weekly, please tell me your source.  Any information that I've got tells me that they report weekly to their customers... which they do.



shams said:

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site?

...

Must be accurate? Says who? Who monitors NPD, or gives them any competition - to make sure that they don't get lazy with their figures?

(for all WE know, NPD talks to the platforms holders - and verifies that their numbers aren't WAY out before publishing them). 

I very much doubt that a company is going to purchase the NPD figures - have a read - then say "We want our  money back - we don't like your numbers!". Competition is much more likely to hurt NPD, than for them to release dodgy numbers.

In hindsight, I agree that if we start changing our figures to match NPD - we are meaningless. We need to position ourselves as an independent tracking body - basically competition to the NPD.

Just like Famitsu & MediaCreate in Japan end up with different numbers - so can our numbers vary from the NPD figures. 

...

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).


 I never said anything about NDP customers asking for their money back when the NDP data is way off. Of course no one will ever do that but I know for sure they will stop paying for it. This means NDP's business will go down the drain.

If you guys want to be taken serious your data cannot be way off like this. It must be on the mark. If NDP and the others release their monthly data based on a much better sample than yours why don't you use use it?

 Remember, the NDP data is trusted by MS/Sony and Nintendo and about everyone else that reads it. On the other hand I keep defending VGC credibility because people make fun of your numbers on gaming sites.... oh well my bad I guess.

 



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

ioi said:
We could go into detail on exactly which stores NPD track and which they don't, market shares, extrapolations and so on. But I think it is beyond the scope of this conversation and would probably reveal more than a lot of people would like revealed.

NPD gets around 60% of sales directly (maybe a bit less) and estimates for the remaining 40%. Of course this is a big sample, but when you are missing out whole retail chains it is difficult (as I know) to successfully estimate for their sales.

That said, a 65% discrepancy so Sony's PS3 figures and a 40% discrepancy to our 360 figures is a lot. We could be wrong and they could be right, the truth could lie somewhere in between.

That is up to you guys to decide.

I kind of see what you are saying..... there are ten pies, NPD has it's hands in six of them so it knows how large all six are, but estimates for the other four pies.

VGC has a finger in 9 or even 10 pies so can extrapolate to find the size of each pie relatively accurately, thus less estimating for whole pies we know nothing about like NPD.

 

mmm, pie



krik said:
shams said:

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site?

...

Must be accurate? Says who? Who monitors NPD, or gives them any competition - to make sure that they don't get lazy with their figures?

(for all WE know, NPD talks to the platforms holders - and verifies that their numbers aren't WAY out before publishing them).

I very much doubt that a company is going to purchase the NPD figures - have a read - then say "We want our money back - we don't like your numbers!". Competition is much more likely to hurt NPD, than for them to release dodgy numbers.

In hindsight, I agree that if we start changing our figures to match NPD - we are meaningless. We need to position ourselves as an independent tracking body - basically competition to the NPD.

Just like Famitsu & MediaCreate in Japan end up with different numbers - so can our numbers vary from the NPD figures.

...

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).


I never said anything about NDP customers asking for their money back when the NDP data is way off. Of course no one will ever do that but I know for sure they will stop paying for it. This means NDP's business will go down the drain.

If you guys want to be taken serious your data cannot be way off like this. It must be on the mark. If NDP and the others release their monthly data based on a much better sample than yours why don't you use use it?

Remember, the NDP data is trusted by MS/Sony and Nintendo and about everyone else that reads it. On the other hand I keep defending VGC credibility because people make fun of your numbers on gaming sites.... oh well my bad I guess.

 

Yet if VGC bases their numbers on NPD they become entirely pointless. If your going to be a tracking firm you need to be an entirely seperate entity to all other tracking firms in existence, correcting your numbers to match another firms makes you entirely irrelevant. Personally I'm glad Ioi no longer corrects to match NPD numbers as we have no guarantee of their accuracy either. 

 



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i still find it hard to believe that ioi is okay with not changing the numbers all of a sudden even though every month he does.. im with everybody esle i think theres somethin screwed up about that..



URNOTE Proud Owner of a 60GB PS3 Console (Purchased 12/22/06)

 #1 reason MGS4 is PS3 exclusive  xbox is too loud for snake to sneak around
PSNTAG= Xander732

I've attempted to explain the discrpency in the Xbox 360 hardware sales in the news item I put up.

However, I suspect there will be little need for a correction in the future as

1) Mass market adoption of Xbox 360 matches hardcore adoption of the console (its under $300 now) for the holidays.

2) Hardcore gamers begin to switch to PS3 and Wii at gaming stores.

Both of those factors should result in VGC undertracking Xbox 360 in the next few months as compared to NPD (if they happened), which would bring the two closer together.

With differences in sample size there are bound to be occasional variances, but we believe our sample is sufficiently large enough to be self correcting.

For instance, the preliminary japanese data for Super Mario Galaxy was 282,500 - but then it did 37,000 the next week (~320k) .

Media Create had it at 251,000 and then 74,000 (325k).

Close, no?  MC certaintly has more sources for Japan than I do for the preliminary article, but the data remains very close.

Small samples will take you to the total in a different vehicle, but if the vehicle is sturdy it usually can still get you there.  You just have to be able to avoid crashing, accidents, etc.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

URNotE said:
i still find it hard to believe that ioi is okay with not changing the numbers all of a sudden even though every month he does.. im with everybody esle i think theres somethin screwed up about that..

He did adjust for the NPD months of July, August and September, but then when the quarterly shipments came out he adjussted close to what they would have been without NPD adjustments....basically ioi thinks his last few months of data has worked out pretty well, and that the "in light of NPD" changes were unneccessary and possibly less accurate (mainly with DS and 360 though...could this possibly be due to the 360 being the most hardcore and the DS being the least, ie they sell well in places that NPD has no info for at all.)



*Sits down, munches popcorn*



So say we all, yo.

(hhmmmm) i dont know what to think but i guess if ioi wants to stick with his numbers we cant fault him for that.. but id have to admit the timing and perception as alot of others have stated really dont look good.. but im sure once the quarterly reports come out that he'll change it to reflect those instead of changing them to reflect the npd numbers every month.. he has to seperate vgchartz and create credibility for its numbers some how..



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