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Locked: The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

The only way this site can gain credibility is if it distances itself from NPD and works to set itself up as independent, we are only assuming that NPD is more accurate if at the end of the quarter the data comes out an shows VGC was closer than NPD then VGchartz looks like a real comeptitor, if not ioi adjusts and we try again next quarter



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Around the Network

PS3 (NPD US) - 121k
PS3 (NPD Canada) ~ 13k (based on previous months)
PS3 (NPD total) - 134k

PS3 (VGC) - 156k



 

ioi said:
krik, the problem is that the only reason NPD is official is because they have no competition. They are not an officially recognised government body or anything, just the best option we have had until now.

I hope you (and everyone else) sticks with the site. If shipment data and other indicators suggest we are too high or too low for a particular hardware then I will be sure to make adjustments.

Sony's numbers are quoted as being sell-through to consumers, so I think it is a fair comparison. I'm don't think Sony's numbers are right, but I am using it to illustrate that large discrepancies can occur (look at Famitsu vs Media Create Wii sales last 2 months).

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site? 

What do you mean shipping data and other indicators? Do you mean the manufacturer shipments to retail? For that to be a viable option you need to do that all the time on a periodic basis but if I remember it correctly last time you adjusted your numbers (mostly up) was based on NDP's data. Am I wrong? I remember the updates and I think it was about the same time the NDP data come out but I don't know what data you used to do the adjustments. Maybe you can refresh my mind? What source data did you use to adjust your own data 4/5 weeks ago?



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

sinha said:

So the PS3 is 5,000,000 behind the 360 in America, and it's catching up by about negative 250,000 a month.

At that rate, the PS3 should pass the 360 in April of 2005.

ROFL...

Quote of the year in my books :) 

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Oh just for the record Wii did hit that sales record of 5 million units sold in less than a year, or 12 recording months technically.



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Zucas said:
Well there are issues with comparing sales to shipments. One we don't know what the sold to shipped ratio is. Second you could have things like channel stuffing which MS did last year. Thirdly have companies do production shipments like Sony.

All these things could inhibit figuring out the sold to ship ratio. I mean the only way you'd be able to really tell if the numbers are wrong is if it was way below 50% sold to shipped or above the total shipped. Which really means you have to be very far off on both spectrums.

I mean if we do that does this really make us any better than nexgenwars.


But for whatever you do at least say there'll be a little adjustments.

 You can only channel stuff so much before people figure it out, Wii is easy because 90-95% of what they ship sells, MS can only stuff so much a million plus tops and by then it'll be public knowledge, ioi can take that information into account, plus he can see how much is on the shelves of the retailers he samples and project how much is on the shelf world wide



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

krik said:
ioi said:
krik, the problem is that the only reason NPD is official is because they have no competition. They are not an officially recognised government body or anything, just the best option we have had until now.

I hope you (and everyone else) sticks with the site. If shipment data and other indicators suggest we are too high or too low for a particular hardware then I will be sure to make adjustments.

Sony's numbers are quoted as being sell-through to consumers, so I think it is a fair comparison. I'm don't think Sony's numbers are right, but I am using it to illustrate that large discrepancies can occur (look at Famitsu vs Media Create Wii sales last 2 months).

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site?

...

Must be accurate? Says who? Who monitors NPD, or gives them any competition - to make sure that they don't get lazy with their figures?

(for all WE know, NPD talks to the platforms holders - and verifies that their numbers aren't WAY out before publishing them). 

I very much doubt that a company is going to purchase the NPD figures - have a read - then say "We want our  money back - we don't like your numbers!". Competition is much more likely to hurt NPD, than for them to release dodgy numbers.

In hindsight, I agree that if we start changing our figures to match NPD - we are meaningless. We need to position ourselves as an independent tracking body - basically competition to the NPD.

Just like Famitsu & MediaCreate in Japan end up with different numbers - so can our numbers vary from the NPD figures. 

...

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Oh come on what does NPD have to obtain by messing or posting bad numbers. What would they gain? Apsolutely nothing. It's not like they only have one of the major 3 receiving their numbers. They have all 3. Meaning if they screwed up their numbers in any which direction they'd only be losing consumers.

To keep its major consumers NPD has to get the most accurate numbers as possible. If they distort them or don't check their numbers they only people they hurt is themselves. They may have a monopoly but that monopoly is in check by its consumers such as Nintendo, Sony, and MS. If they don't give out the most accurate numbers they can possibly give then they'll lose consumers such as them 3. Yall act as if this corporation is purposely out their giving us false numbers to make fools of us all.



shams said:

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).

Doesn't the released top 10 include both versions of Guitar Hero for the PS2? Didn't SimExchange claim to have access (under their agreement with NPD) to the data for both versions of Guitar Hero for the 360? Either the numbers posted on this thread (and on SimExchange, I checked those) are bogus, or Guitar Hero pretty much disproves that theory.

The aparent numbers for Guitar Hero see VGChartz with NPD+60% for the 360 and NPD-50% for the PS2. Who's right? I don't know. And I respect the decision not to change the numbers. But still, it's a big difference, and it doesn't seem to be explained by that theory.



Reality has a Nintendo bias.
Zucas said:
Oh come on what does NPD have to obtain by messing or posting bad numbers. What would they gain? Apsolutely nothing. It's not like they only have one of the major 3 receiving their numbers. They have all 3. Meaning if they screwed up their numbers in any which direction they'd only be losing consumers.

To keep its major consumers NPD has to get the most accurate numbers as possible. If they distort them or don't check their numbers they only people they hurt is themselves. They may have a monopoly but that monopoly is in check by its consumers such as Nintendo, Sony, and MS. If they don't give out the most accurate numbers they can possibly give then they'll lose consumers such as them 3. Yall act as if this corporation is purposely out their giving us false numbers to make fools of us all.

Calm down, we are just saying they are not necessarily accurate. I am also not sure where you get all major 3 correcting their number, you do realize company usually have trade secrets that they'd rather not reveal, right? 



I am a PC gamer, and also have a NDS now, but without access to a Nintendo Wii until End of 2007.

Currently playing: Super Smash Brothers Brawl(Wii), Mystery Dungeon: Shiren the Wanderer(DS), Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime (DS), WiiFit(Wii)

Games Recently Beaten: Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: My Life as a King (Normal; Very Hard after the next DLCs become available)

1 word: RTFA