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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

thats true, then every site has to have the same exact data as NPD? NPD isn't even 100% accurate, this site isn't 100%, no site is 100%.

A good example is Wal-mart, you know how many people buy stuff there and all they do is estimate those sells.

I love that this site has their own ways in getting the data, I also like comparing this data to other sites, because none are 100% like NPD is.



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One thing we can guaranty is that the next Microsoft report is going to be very very interesting to us at VGchartz...and them at NPD.

ioi, your walking a very rocky path by taking your own numbers above that of NPD, but it's a path that I respect.
3 Questions :

1) Is the Microsoft sales data "shipped" or some internal sold to customers tracking system? (I would be amazed if they didn't have one)

2) Are the very high X360 sales purely for that month or does it include any adjustments for the earlier undertracked months to make up the required LTD at that point in time?

3) Are your sources at Microsoft (semi)Official or are they leaked. (no names required, I trust you)

I look forward to seeing how the numbers work out in the future.





"..just keep on trying 'till you run out of cake"

Well there are issues with comparing sales to shipments. One we don't know what the sold to shipped ratio is. Second you could have things like channel stuffing which MS did last year. Thirdly have companies do production shipments like Sony.

All these things could inhibit figuring out the sold to ship ratio. I mean the only way you'd be able to really tell if the numbers are wrong is if it was way below 50% sold to shipped or above the total shipped. Which really means you have to be very far off on both spectrums.

I mean if we do that does this really make us any better than nexgenwars.


But for whatever you do at least say there'll be a little adjustments.



Oh also RE4: Wii Edition, Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree, and Mario STrikers Charged are all platinum sellers by the way ioi. Just in case you missed it.



Here are some NPD comments from NOA - courtesy of IGN:

... 

"It's the fastest-selling console that we can remember," Nintendo's vice president of marketing and corporate affairs, Perrin Kaplan, said of Wii in a telephone conversation with IGN Wii. "And I think it's going to continue to get bigger."

Wii outsold Xbox 360 in October without having a Halo 3 killer. How? "It's apples and oranges. So many millions of people are enjoying the Wii experience and so many millions of others want to have it," said Kaplan. "It really, in many ways, has very little to do with the other companies. Those who are hardcore gamers are going to own several systems. And you have to remember that there are millions of gamers who have yet to experience Wii Sports for the first time."

Asked if she thought Halo 3's boost to Xbox 360 sales would represent a peak point for Microsoft's console, Kaplan responded, "I think time will tell. I just know that Nintendo has really true expansion that's going on in a pretty amazing way."

Going forward, Nintendo's focus is to make sure that "product gets into the hands of consumers." Kaplan declined to give exact monthly shipment numbers for Wii, saying only that the company is on target to release 17.5 million consoles globally by the end of its fiscal year. "We've raised our projections several times this year. We're ramping up production. Obviously, the demand is there."

Kaplan "absolutely does think" that Wii's hardware sales figures will be larger in November than they were in October. Sales will be spurred by the recent release of the company's flagship holiday title, Super Mario Galaxy, which debuted to rave critical reviews on November 12. So far, the game has performed "crazy good," according to Kaplan. "The launch of Galaxy has done really, really well. We're looking to put together some numbers for you soon."

The Nintendo executive believes that Wii will continue to sell phenomenally well through the holidays and that people will pick up the system just to play Wii Sports. This is partly why the company's next exercise-themed blockbuster, Wii Fit, won't hit stateside until next year, despite a planned Japanese release this December. "It was our calculated decision to really give Galaxy the legs that it needs and to allow the millions of buyers to fall in love with Wii Sports. We'll begin to move into [Wii Fit] next year. It's just different dynamics happening in the different market places. They chose to bring Wii Fit out there and I think that will do really well in Japan - it will be interesting to watch."

Kaplan said that she didn't believe Sony's PSP handheld would be able to catch DS in sales, saying of the handheld, "We're going to continue to blow through the roof."

When asked if third parties have begun to take notice of what fans have referred to as "Nintendomination," the continued sales success of Wii and DS, Kaplan said, "We've had great stuff going on all year, but we are starting to see different developers embrace the different ways in which they can develop for the system."



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

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The only way this site can gain credibility is if it distances itself from NPD and works to set itself up as independent, we are only assuming that NPD is more accurate if at the end of the quarter the data comes out an shows VGC was closer than NPD then VGchartz looks like a real comeptitor, if not ioi adjusts and we try again next quarter



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

PS3 (NPD US) - 121k
PS3 (NPD Canada) ~ 13k (based on previous months)
PS3 (NPD total) - 134k

PS3 (VGC) - 156k



 

ioi said:
krik, the problem is that the only reason NPD is official is because they have no competition. They are not an officially recognised government body or anything, just the best option we have had until now.

I hope you (and everyone else) sticks with the site. If shipment data and other indicators suggest we are too high or too low for a particular hardware then I will be sure to make adjustments.

Sony's numbers are quoted as being sell-through to consumers, so I think it is a fair comparison. I'm don't think Sony's numbers are right, but I am using it to illustrate that large discrepancies can occur (look at Famitsu vs Media Create Wii sales last 2 months).

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site? 

What do you mean shipping data and other indicators? Do you mean the manufacturer shipments to retail? For that to be a viable option you need to do that all the time on a periodic basis but if I remember it correctly last time you adjusted your numbers (mostly up) was based on NDP's data. Am I wrong? I remember the updates and I think it was about the same time the NDP data come out but I don't know what data you used to do the adjustments. Maybe you can refresh my mind? What source data did you use to adjust your own data 4/5 weeks ago?



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

sinha said:

So the PS3 is 5,000,000 behind the 360 in America, and it's catching up by about negative 250,000 a month.

At that rate, the PS3 should pass the 360 in April of 2005.

ROFL...

Quote of the year in my books :) 

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Oh just for the record Wii did hit that sales record of 5 million units sold in less than a year, or 12 recording months technically.