When will the switch outsell the ps4?

[Bofferbrauer2]

victor83fernandes said:

TruckOSaurus said:

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?

Underscored: Sure, Sony could halve the price of the PS4. But guess what: They do so already during BF, and the sales are still dropping during that period.

Also, doing that now would be suicide for them. They could do so, but only absolute enthusiasts would then go and buy a PS5, which will be several times more expensive - the exact thing that almost killed the PS3 at launch btw. And that wasn't the only reason why the PS2 kept selling: 3rd world countries got introduced with the PS2 only after the PS3 was released in the west, but the PS4 launched in these countries almost the same time as in the west. Also, many, many bought a PS2 only for Singstar or Buzz - you know, the kind of casuals that later went to the Wii, Kinect and finally smartphones.

bolded: Wrong console, that was the PS3. As a BD-Player the PS4 is way overpriced. I got my BD-3D player in 2013 for about 130€, now they cost half that. A BD-4K player also only costs about 120€, still cheaper than a PS4 even at your purported price tag. No one would buy a PS4 these days just to have a BD-Player.

Additionally, I want to stress that most of the PS2 sales came from the US. But there, Microsoft has now put up much stronger competition than the PS2 had, even with an XBO with middling sales worldwide, as more than half of them come from the US. Playstation has lost part of the US market to the Xbox which was in Sony's hands during the PS2 era.

Long story short, the PS4 doesn't have anything that could give it something near the legs that the PS2 had. PS2 had tons of boosters after the PS3 got revealed, but most of them are not available for the PS4 anymore, so the only reason why the PS4 would sell well into the future would be that Sony royally botches the PS5 launch and makes it too expensive for most people (aka over $599).

Finally, one thing that you can check here is that Playstation plus Xbox each gen results into around 175M. That's true both for PS2/Xbox and PS360, and it looks increasingly like PS4/XBO won't be far off, either.