curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:
You have a very good point, Nintendo can and will sell as a portable, not a home console, hence why the LITE is selling so well, but the same with 3ds, it hit a plateau in sales, all Nintendo portables sell for a few years until they release a new model. Most people who wanted one already got one.
The big issue with the switch is it doesn't have backwards compatibility, the 3ds had full compatibility with DS games, then another huge issue, switch games are way more expensive than 3ds games, portable games was always cheaper than home console games. Another issue, the switch is really not that portable, you cant fold it and put in the pocket like the 3ds.
So I really do not see the switch selling more than 100 million until a switch 2 arrives. Even the 3ds which was very popular didn't reach those numbers during 9 years at a cheaper price.
The switch had a huge advantage, it came out when everyone already had a ps or xbox, and after the wiiU which no one wanted. So people had their wallets ready and no new toys to buy.
But going forward there's more competition for peoples wallets for Christmas, brand new consoles that will be desired by all kids, the new consoles will be the top sellers this Christmas period, by far.
But again you have a point, the switch is a good spot by being the only portable console going forward. To be honest I'm surprised sony didn't jump in with a similar device mid generation, a current technology Vita would blow the switch away, I remember testing my Vita and 3ds side by side, and there was no competition at all, Sony doesn't cheap out as much as Nintendo. Imagine a Switch with OLED screen, double the battery, double the storage, smaller bezels, more power.
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Switch is selling at a much faster pace than the 3DS though, despite being much more expensive.
It's already over 10 million ahead of where 3DS was at the same point, and the gap is widening.
And Switch is a totally different product to PS and Xbox; it doesn't sell for the same reasons and occupies a different niche. Since PS5 and XSX won't offer gaming on the go or games like Pokemon and Smash, the arrival of those systems won't supplant Switch's value proposition and therefore won't significantly affect its sales.
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That's where you are wrong, both ps5 and xbox series X will offer gaming on the go, with the 5G in the future, and internet everywhere, you can access your ps5 and xbox games streamed to your tablet, phone, laptop etc, I can bet with you that both sony and Microsoft will present such a service very soon. I am certain of this because I'm always right about these things, I've followed gaming for 30 years.
The switch being 10 million over the 3ds is nothing to boost, the 3ds hasn't caught up to the ps3 or xbox 360 or wii yet, let alone ps4 numbers. My point remains, following your own graphic, and logic from the 3ds, wii, etc, I always said the switch will sell a lot more than the 3ds, 100 million easy in 4-5 years, but will not catch up to ps4 which will be minimum 140 million by that time. The best the switch could do is 120 million, ONLY IF Nintendo doesn't release a new switch 2 which is highly unlikely, because Nintendo never kept the same console for more than 7-8 years without a new one.
