When will the switch outsell the ps4?

[Farsala]

Nu-13 said:

Farsala said:
It won't, because the Switch 2 will release. If we simply go with VGC's numbers, Switch's stronghold over the PS4 is Japan.

As a % of sales:

World: 47%
Japan: 134%
Europe: 30.6%
USA: 54.2%
Other: 32.4%

Japan is a limited market and the Switch is not outpacing the 3DS there so it is likely to sell less than 25m, a 15m advantage over the PS4. In USA the Switch might surpass the PS4, but only barely. That leaves Europe and Others with 30-33% vs 47% world, how will the Switch catch up there or come close enough?

The switch is very likely to outsell the 3ds in japan. But let's go with your numbers anyway. There is no "might" or "barely", the switch is on track to confortably outsell the ps4 in USA. You add that to Japan's huge advantage and the better question is: How will the ps4 make up for that with just Europe + others?

If we give the Switch the 15m advantage in Japan, then we extrapolate the other numbers the same way.

At 24m vs 9m that is from 134% to 266%, so 1.99 or 2 for quick math.

Japan: 266%= 24m

Europe: 61.2%= 26.62m

USA: 108.4%=  38m

Other: 64.8%= 12.11m

World: 94%= 100.73m

But that is just current PS4 numbers, the PS4 will of course keep selling.

To beat the PS4 you need a ratio of ~114% which would be >120m. A 114% ratio would be the equivalent of the Switch selling 29m in Japan and 46m in USA, which I don't see happening. But worse is the Europe and Others ratios.

Last edited by Farsala - on 11 January 2020