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Hiku said:

It took Switch about 3 years to reach half of PS4's numbers.
If PS4 stops selling today, and Switch keeps selling at the same pace for another 3 years, it'd reach PS4.

But PS4 won't stop selling yet, and Switch's next 3 years are less likely to be as good as its first 3.

I'm not sure if Switch will even get that high. But if it does, then I'd say first half of 2024.

You are correct that the next 3 years aren't likely to be as good as 2017 + 2018 + 2019. It's far more likely that they will be even better.