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Mnementh said:
Moren said:

The first caucus is soon, and then the rest of primaries extend for months.

Yes. I'm giving Biden a 65% chance of winning, versus a 35% chance for Bernie, and 0% for everyone else.

Wait, you give Warren a 0% chance?

If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have called her the most likely to win the nomination.

I think her moment has passed. She isn't doing stellar with minorities, and she's having to battle with Pete for the anti-Bernie/anti-Biden voters. I think Warren is the kind of candidate who won't survive a disappointing Iowa/NH.

I think she was doing a good job trying to balance the progressive/moderate wings of the party (unlike Kamala who tried to do the same thing and failed), but it is a pretty delicate balancing act, and I think at some point in her campaign she lost it.