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curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Overall I agree with most of what you're saying but I still feel like 5 years is too soon.

I'm guessing March 2023 giving it 6 years with 2 years of support after that, similar to 3DS.

Yeah 2023 sounds about right; give it 6 years before replacement, 5 would be cutting it too short for such a successful system. 

Yeah March 2022 seems way too short. March 2023 seems reasonable. We're probably gonna be getting a second round of major titles on Switch (Mario 3D, Zelda, Pokemon) from holiday 2020 thru 2021, so Switch 2 coming out in Spring 2020 would mean none of those first year for Switch 2 and I'm pretty sure they're gonna want at least one of those on launch year after seeing how big Zelda and Mario were for having a great first year for Switch.

I also agree with a $350 Switch 2. If releasing ~2.5 years after PS5/Scarlett at a higher price point than Switch allows Switch 2 to get close enough in power to those systems to play graphically downgraded but still good versions (lower res, lower fr, some missing effects, but otherwise the same game) of next gen 3rd party games that would bring back a sector that Nintendo hasn't had in 3 consoles. Plus Switch isn't a small handheld that can be slid into a pocket, so Nintendo has proven the space for a handheld you have to carry in a case or slide into a backpack or whatever, so I could see them making a slightly larger Switch 2 at a little higher price point that can pick up good downgraded versions of all but the absolutely most intense multiplat AAA 3rd party games on PS5/Scarlett.

I expect Switch would still get minor support for holiday 2023 and then Nintendo would focus 100% on Switch 2, so I think after 2023 Switch would only sell some 5+ million, though that could still put it at 115+ million lifetime. I think PS4 will end up just over 130 million, and Switch should end up 15 or so million behind it.