One possible eventuality I'm thinking of based on current trends:
-Biden carries most of the South and Far West.
-Buttigieg and Sanders split the Midwest.
-Warren carries most of the Northeast.
-End result: Biden wins.
Why is this a possibility, you ask? Well think of it in terms of where the respective candidate's strengths lie: Biden is routinely the most popular candidate among voters of color broadly, and they're his most loyal supporters, so that advantages him over everyone else in the disproportionately African American South and the disproportionately Latino and Asian-American Far West broadly. The Midwest, in contrast, is getting older and whiter over time because the youth are leaving. That favors candidates who are popular among older white voters and Mayor Pete is currently emerging as a force among specifically older Midwestern white working class and middle-income voters (actually faring worst among wealthier ones at present), and I think the fact that Pete Buttigieg is actually from that part of the country would also help him regionally. On the other hand, there are also, I believe, a number of states that vote by caucus instead of by regular primary in the Midwest, and that process tends to favor activists over regular working people who might not have day off to invest 8 hours waiting around to vote, and Bernie Sanders clearly has the most activist support, so he could win in most of the caucus states, I suspect. Finally, the Northeast is not only Liz Warren's home turf, but also relies mostly on closed primaries, which structurally advantages her over Sanders throughout most of that area since she's more popular among actual, registered Democrats than Sanders is.
Whatcha think? Is this eventuality plausible at all?
