| Jumpin said: Another poll by The Economist shows Biden slipping further. It looks that Warren is picking up nearly all of the undecideds. I think this will cause a feedback loop allowing her to pick up most of the Biden support, who were supporting him because it looked like he was going to win. Now it's becoming more apparent that Warren is going to win. She has both the passion and the intellect. Additionally, I'll go ahead and say that she's almost certainly the US's next President. Trump's support has been below adequate for him to retain the presidency virtually since he took office (since at least March 2017). Not to mention, he has grown weak and feeble since 2016, lacking coherency. I expect a landslide victory for Elizabeth Warren's Democrats. Here are the poll numbers from October 1st, by The Economist. 1. Warren - 28% 2. Biden - 22% 3. Sanders - 13% She's beginning to move from simple leading to a commanding lead. |
Don't leave, Jumpin. We might not agree about inevitability, but you're my one friend on this thread and don't at all seem like a little dose of toxic masculinity to me. VGC blows and bears little resemblance to the outside world.
I find it comical that Jason's response to your post above was "I think this is a very premature conclusion considering that Biden is still the front runner when you average out all the polls.", followed by a link to the RCP average. Fast-forward a week and check out his latest post: "Warren is now the frontrunner.", followed by a new link to the RCP average. LOL!! Classic.
I've been reluctant to believe that anyone but Joe Biden can win this nominating contest, but you know what, I'm actually starting to have second thoughts about that myself. I mean normally a good debate performance is good for two weeks of uptick in the polls, but this current boost for Warren has been sustained for nearly a month straight now. Events ranging from the last debate to the endorsement of the Working Families Party to frankly the new publicity surround the Ukraine scandal seem to be conspiring to make her a more viable candidate. Her RCP polling average nationwide is now ahead of Biden's, and the latest poll on that list, one by Quinnipiac University, is Warren's best one to date:
Warren: 29%
Biden: 26%
Sanders: 16%
Others: Low single-digits
A couple of the more striking indications of this particular poll are that Biden has lost the support of both working class voters (now in third place in this category) and moderate voters, that Warren has fully doubled her support among black voters in the last month (Biden is now down to 36% of black voters compared to a majority back in the summer), leads among voters aged 35 to 64, polls marginally better than Sanders against Trump now, and that almost two-thirds of remaining Sanders supporters, in this poll anyway, are male. Also, contrary to Uran's argument that one could only support Warren over Sanders out of ignorance, Warren is the leading candidate of voters who say they are paying "a lot of attention" to the race, while two out of three Sanders supporters say they're only paying "some attention". Another striking finding of this survey: fully a majority of working class voters plan to vote for a progressive candidate (26% Sanders, 25% Warren, which adds up to 51% of the total). It's the only class grouping of Americans for which that is true.
