Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Final Results

[zorg1000]

kenjab said:

PAOerfulone said:
(Repost from Famitsu thread)
So, I did a bit of digging and calculating for when the DS Lite and 3DS XL launched in Japan and how they affected DS and 3DS sales respectively before and after their launch.

DS Lite - Launched March 2, 2006:
Before: 43,765
After: 124,286 - 184% increase

3DS XL - Launched July 28, 2012
Before: 43,291
After: 239,273 - 453% increase

This is how the Switch Lite would affect sales next week if it has one of those two percentage increases:
Before: 51,619
After (184%) 146,590
After (453%) 285,303

We should expect the Switch Lite affect to be somewhere in the middle, although I think we'll get something closer to the DS Lite effect than the 3DS XL one. Next week's numbers are going to be big ones; Very important ones for the Switch and Nintendo.  With two products/price points that will both be desirable to the market I think the baseline will increase significantly.

I replied on that thread about how I'm curious about the long-term effects of Switch Lite.  Here's my prediction:  175K-200K next week.  After that, I think the weekly number will be in the 110K - 130K range and then ramp up from there for the holidays.

A 110-130k baseline is not happening.

After the big price cut in summer 2011, 3DS baseline went from 20-40k to 50-70k and after the XL released in summer 2012 the baseline went from 50-60k to 60-80k.

Switch baseline has been around 30-50k for most of the spring/summer so something like 50-80k is more likely.