jason1637 said:
In the last 3 elections the GOP has stayed stagnant in Text getting 4.4-4.6m while Dems have grew their base by 1 million. If the trend continues then it will take 3 more cycles for them to pass the GOP unless the GOP changes starts to do more outreach to minorities. |
Hmm, fair enough, good analysis. I have seen that analysis before, in fact. I just suspect that it might be possible for a change in turnout patterns to accelerate things. Hispanics historically don't turn out much at all, but the midterm saw a slight jump, catching the Hispanic rate up to around where the black rate normally is, so I'm hopeful that that trend will continue as well and accelerate the closing of the raw vote gap into a competitive range much earlier than we expected.
