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Your list is fairly accurate, yes it wasn't loyalty to Sony, but several of them were already tired of Nintendo. And if MS could moneyhat most of them to make multiplats even during Xbox original years I don't see why Sony wouldn't have done it to secure those titles.

It isn't really a case of just the CD made everything change, Saturn had CD and was a bomb worse than N64, so what is there to assure that Nintendo couldn't do even worse if they had gone with CD. Like a system that ended up worse and the Mario 64 and Zelda ended up being much worse game. It would be possible that their first year that was great became bad.

The Saturn was an absolute clusterfuck from both a technical and a marketing perspective. Expensive to program for, since companies had to spend a lot of time and money just fighting with the architecture, and it cost the then outrageous price of $400 USD. And most of its games looked like SNES games with FMV. The Saturn was doomed from the word go thanks to Sega of Japan's incredible arrogance and failure to listen to their American branch. Nintendo couldn't possibly have done worse short of pricing the N64 at $500 USD or Hiroshi Yamauchi publicly badmouthing the Emperor of Japan and the President of the United States.