Last gen PS3 sold 87M units, and PS4 has already sold 100M and is likely going to end up selling 20M-30M more than that. So out of those 10M extra players right now, none of them are buying into Plus? What if there were different tiers? What about the other 10M-20M or more in the future? Will PS5 sell less, the same, or more units?
In April 2003 XB Live had 350,000 users. In April 2004 XB Live was now at 750,000 users. In July 2005 Live had 2M users. E3 2007 Live had 7M users. March 2008 10M users. Jan 2009 17M users. Today it has 64M. I don't see why PS offering different options and packages couldn't lead to a significant increase in users.
Not games that released for half price, games that dropped to half price which increased or kept sales going so instead of the game stagnating or fading away, it continues on. Whether it be PS first party or third party, it's a way to keep bringing people in. If you look at Ubisoft for example, games like AC Origins or R6 Siege came down in price fairly quickly which kept sales going and increased overall sales by a considerable amount. I myself wouldn't have bought Origins at $80, but I did for $40 like a month after the launch, and it's led me to spend more money on all the DLC. The basic Plus package wouldn't be a new launch really, it would be an additional offering to an existing service, just a more affordable one. Like how you can buy Origins or Siege in different editions for different prices.
I agree you should use historical data to guide you to a certain degree, but unless the historical data and what it's tied to match up exactly with what you're comparing it to, you have to interpret how things may differ now. The PS3 gen compared to the PS4 gen is very different, also taking into account the competition.
When PS gives games away with PS Plus, those games aren't free for them. Even if they give their own first party games away that's some lost profit. One way or another PS has to work for your dollar. They don't profit 100%.
MS had bigger problems, and like I said, they are heading for a service based platform and have been before it became obviously apparent more recently, so the last thing they want to budge on is online pricing. That's their gravy train. PS isn't focused and relying on that so much.
Correct, and your point is that PS/SNY aren't going to do more work, especially for less or the same money. Why sell 30% more consoles for 20% less when they could sell 30% less for 20% more? Market share and mind share. The opportunity to get you into the ecosystem and possibly lock you into it with everything else they offer.
If your numbers are right then yes it would be worse. How do you know for certainty that would be the case though? Even if it ended up so that PS made the exact same amount of money in the end, what's wrong with that if they can please more consumers while getting them into their ecosystem?
The Canadian National Anthem According To Justin Trudeau