Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

[Mnementh]

HylianSwordsman said:

Mnementh said:

Some post debate analysis by Nate Silver. I think (also in past editions with his tiers) that he is too pessimistic about Sanders and too optimistic about Kamala Harris (I mean she polls now half of Sanders but that just moves her and Sanders in the same tier). But I agree with him on Warren. I am very optimistic about her upwards movement in polls. Ever so slightly, but steady. And in difference to other candidates that saw changes after the debates but bounced back, her upwards momentum is always there.

Yeah, I've been following Silver for a long time now and he's always been incredibly pessimistic with Sanders. He was pessimistic with Trump pretty much until it was obvious he was going to get the nomination, and even then entertained all sorts of ideas about how he might be stopped, and not until the last couple of months did he have Trump with a decent chance to win through flipping the Rust Belt. The guy is incredibly skeptical of any anti-establishment movement until it's inevitable the movement will succeed.

Yeah well, his statistical model about the 2016 election was good. And he said himself, that his considerations before the model were wrong. I guess if he makes educated guesses, he does not better than us. So that is why he said 'not taken too seriously tiers'.

That said I think his underestimation of Sanders is strange. Although Sanders was and is polling at second place, Silver often put him below Kamala Harris. And it is not as if the other indicator were bad. Sanders has less endorsements than Harris, but not extremely bad. And fundraising is phenomenal for Sanders. But ih well, I also only make educated guesses, so my chances to be right aren't any better.