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haxxiy on 09 August 2019
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
haxxiy said:

Could there still be hope for anyone who isn't Diamond Joe?

Not sure about this folks. Imagine Trump leaving a 7 - 2 SC majority as his legacy if he gets reelected.

The thing is, before the first debate Biden was about 10 points higher, often winning over 40% in many polls. He's going down, slowly but surely...

Also, have a look who's winning: Sanders, Warren, Yang, Booker, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Castro and Inslee. In other words, there's a clear shift to the left in terms of policies, while the establishment candidates are all on the dropping side.

It's a bit sad that Castro doesn't seem to get any higher despite his good performances in the debates. While he's far from being my favorite candidate, he deserves more than what he has from performances alone imo.

haxxiy said:

Also: Tom Steyer will likely be in the next debates. Getting 3% polls in early states, pretty insane for someone most people probably don't even know. Since Castro is a lock-in and Gabbard and Gillibrang have better than even odds, that could be another 2 night debate after all.

As far as I understand, Tom Steyer was a big financier of progressive ideas in the democratic party. As a result, his name might have popped up often enough in the past, especially since he financed ads in favor of progressivism in the past. He's a billionaire in favor for raising taxes for the rich like himself, and a rather big environmentalist to boot. His actions in the past might have given him a good network to build upon.

He's probably running on his 5 Rights principle, which he believes every democrat should fight for. These are the right to vote, and rights for a good health, a complete education, living wages and a clean environment. All in all probably the exact opposite of Trump in terms of billionaires.

Biden lost his announcement boost, and there's a poor first debate, but other than that, I don't see any long-term trend at all?

Yang and Gabbard are far-right darlings (most of their supporters have voted Trump over Clinton at 5:1 and 12:1 rates respectively, according to YouGov) polling at 0% with the democratic mainstream, so I wouldn't lump them together with the other progressives. Besides, Yang lost votes in the data I posted.

Also... in the latest polls, Steyer has 58% of people with no opinion about him, which is less than Ryan and around the same as Inslee, so I'm not sure how well-know he is exactly, despite of what he might have previously done or not.

P.S. Don't get me wrong, I'd love if Warren or Sanders won this, but the effects of the US election all over the world, specially in countries where fascists sit on presidential or prime-minister chairs with their smug faces... no, we can't risk giving them any more moral authority. Else, we'll be subject to their wild ride for at least another half a decade.