Mnementh on 08 August 2019
| haxxiy said: Chances of nomination according to 538 based on historical data. Blue line is 100% name recognition, red line 50% name recognition. According to Morning Consult, all candidates are above 50% name recognition except for someone called "Seth Moulton". Sanders, Biden, Warren, Harris are around or above 90%. Looking pretty good for Uncle Joe - mind that primaries usually have smaller fields, as well, so his chances are higher than the graph suggests on all likehood.
|
OK, so Biden has a 40% chance of the nomination, leaving 60% for the other candidates.
