Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

[haxxiy]

SpokenTruth said:

haxxiy said:

Chances of nomination according to 538 based on historical data. Blue line is 100% name recognition, red line 50% name recognition. According to Morning Consult, all candidates are above 50% name recognition except for someone called "Seth Moulton". Sanders, Biden, Warren, Harris are around or above 90%. Looking pretty good for Uncle Joe - mind that primaries usually have smaller fields, as well, so his chances are higher than the graph suggests on all likehood.

That reads weird.

For instance, if you had high name recognition with early polling at 30%, you'd have a 40% chance of nomination. But if you had low name recognition with early polling at 30%, you'd have a 90% change of nomination?  How the hell?  Are they saying at the same early polling rate, the lower name recognition candidate has a much higher chance at nomination?

Why, of course. Because it means people are far more likely to vote for a given candidate once they know about them.

Imagine if someone has 30% of the vote with 50% name recognition. Do you believe they'll be stuck there once everyone knows about them?

Now, the opposite situation - what happened with Jeb!. Evidently, Jeb! polling at 3% is a far greater failure, and far less likely to become a nominee, than someone like Gabbard with 62% recognition polling at 3%.