Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

[Farsala]

RolStoppable said:

Farsala said:

Eventually all console's sales fall off a cliff, and that typically happens when a new successor is announced.

My argument is a lot simpler than I have been stating so far.

1. All consoles have their own unique trajectory but...

2. Switch isn't outpacing fast selling consoles like the Wii (or 3DS in Japan)

3. Switch isn't outpacing leggier consoles like the PS2 or PS4.

So it seems apparent that you think it will outpace or match the PS4 in terms of legs, especially with a 125m prediction. You also keep talking about a price cut, but price cuts won't happen imo. If there is a price cut within a reasonable amount of time I would change my tune.

On point 3, Switch is actually outpacing the PS4 in Japan, America and globally. It's just that right now we are during the period where aligned launches give the PS4 an additional holiday season, but through 36 months Switch will be ahead just like it was through 12 and 24 months, respectively. Point 2 is similar in that Switch isn't outpacing those other consoles in each individual region, but that misses the bigger picture.

Here's the gap chart for Switch vs. PS4:
https://www.vgchartz.com/article/438517/switch-vs-ps4vgchartz-gap-chartsapril-2019-update/

The different launch timings don't allow a real like-for-like comparison, so the best reference points occur every 12 months because that means both consoles have gone through every month of the year the same amount of times.

Switch vs. Wii shows a clear Wii lead at the moment, but the same held true for PS4 vs. Wii at the same point in life. Nevertheless, the PS4 caught up to the Wii over time and with Switch keeping pace with the PS4, the same thing should be expected.

If a price cut is what it takes to change your tune, then so be it. I find it weird that you don't expect Switch to get a price cut ever, but time will take care of that.

It's true they are currently very close. However, regionally Switch will have less legs imo. In terms of Switch vs PS4, Switch's strength is Japan and Japan can only give so much.

If we are going with 1 to 1 comparisons, then I simply prefer FY 12 month comparisons. For PS4 it was X, 14.8, 20, 19, 16 and etc. For Switch it was X, 15, 17, and a prediction of 18. So Switch's highest years are being outpaced by PS4's highest years. In order for Switch to exceed or match the PS4, I would expect a FY prediction of 20m+ in the next few years.

It's not that I don't expect a price cut, I just expect it to be after 40 months, which is too late.