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JRPGfan said:
Mbolibombo said:

There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.

Going by the "PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs 2019" thread, you notice that the PS4 is down ~25% vs 2018.

"I dont think it has much to do with price." -Mboli

Then why did the amazon prime day price drops have such a huge effect on sales? in the US.
Theres clearly still demand, if the price is right. There was like 5-6 sku's of PS4's ahead of the highest ranked Switch sku.
price still plays a huge part.

So I think its too early to say, demand is just down 25% and theres nothing sony can do about it, so this year will only be a ~14m year.

If they do a perm price drop, I'm pretty sure they can get to 16m+ sales.

But only if the pricedrop is $100, $50 won't cut it.

And even then, taking just Prime day (which is a one day promotion) for everyday sales is pretty dangerous. Sure, the first days, demand will be very high, and the baseline will definitely be higher afterwards, but the question is by how much. I expect a worldwide $50 pricecut to just be enough for a 30-40k increase in the baseline now after a spike in the first weeks. That wouldn't be enough to even reach last year's sales anymore.

A $100 pricecut of $199 Superslim could do it, here I do expect a rise in the baseline of 60-90k. But every day without any cut or superslim makes it just more and more difficult to achieve.