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This will be a tough 1.5 years for xbox hw sales. To be honest I think X1 sales will pretty much stopp completely not long after the Nextbox is out.
That said the gamepass service is extremely good value for gamers and will continue to attract people into their ecosystem. I just have to wonder how many subs (at full price, not the 1$/€ subs) they need to break even on that investment.