If Switch stays above 200k throughout July and August I'll be impressed. If it dips below that i early Sept that'd be understandable, Japan especially is gonna hold their breath for the Lite.
I seriously think Nintendo are gonna have supply issues again from the release of Lite to the end of the year; Switch's sales were already really good, add both a $200 revision and the absolute onslaught of games it's getting in the last four months of the year, including Pokemon, Dragon Quest, and Luigi's Mansion, and I can see them having serious trouble keeping up with demand.