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haxxiy on 09 July 2019
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
haxxiy said:

So, what do you folks think it'll be the effect of the good economy to Trump's reelection chances?

Back in 2004, Bush Jr. had a similarly good economy as an incumbent and won narrowly the vote... but then, his approval rate around election time was actually slighly positive, and it was exceptional during most of its first term of office. Trump, on the other hand, will likely remain at least some 6 - 8 points under, as it has for the past 18 months...

Well, he did reach his highest score in approval rating yet a couple days ago, so there's that.

On the other hand, sings of a slowdown are showing up. Ironically, a hard Brexit like Trump is supporting could bring the world economy over the edge, bringing the slowdown and recession that could kill his chances for reelection...

That's why I slightly overstated his usual approval numbers, just in case.

It seems a slowdown is inevitable, the question being when it'll come, and whether the tax cuts it'll be charged back with interest, so to speak. Interesting comparison, over here we did have a president who cut taxes to boost a slowing economy and then got reelected... only to see it all come crashing down during her second term and get impeached.