I'd say $500 PS5 was a given already based on what we know of the specs.
We have a Navi GPU and Ryzen 2 CPU in a single chipset. The 2 Navi Desktop GPU's are $380 and $450 at retail right now while the cheapest 8 core Ryzen 2 desktop CPU is going to be $330 at release. Even taking into account price drops over the next year before mass manufacturing of PS5 begins and the fact that the Sony gets a discount for buying in bulk, we're probably looking at $250-300 for the chipset alone.
We'll most likely have at least 16 GB of GDDR6, possibly as much as 24 GB, though a middle ground of 20 GB is the safest bet I'd say. That's going to cost Sony at least $80.
We have a top of the line m.2 SSD (Sony said it was one of the fastest SSD's on the market as I recall), probably 1 TB, that's going to cost Sony at least $70.
We have the cooler, most likely a vapor chamber cooler if they don't want PS5 to sound like a jet engine like PS4 Pro, that'll cost them at least $40.
We have the case of the system, that'll probably cost about $20.
We have the controller, PS4 controller costs $18 to build, I would assume PS5 will be about the same.
And of course you have the cost of the packaging and labor. All in all, Sony will likely be selling at a loss even at $500.
Yep I'm thinking very close to you:
Apu/Soc = $200
Memory = $75-100
1TB SSD = $50-75
Rest = $175
But I'm expecting between 12-16GB of Video ram and for cooling a heatsink and a big Fan should still be more effective than vapor chamber.
From what I saw of Scarlett, it seems Microsoft will be using a mix of 2GB and 1GB chips, so we can assume 24GB is in for Scarlett... However, 8GB of that will only operate at half the bandwidth, so if Scarlett employs 14Gbps GDDR6 on a 256bit bus, then that last 8GB will be 224GB/s of bandwidth whilst the rest of the 16GB is 448GB/s.
Mixing 1GB and 2GB Ram chips/modules was more complicated than I thought, can't Microsoft do something similiar Nvidia did to geforce 550 Ti? Quote from Anandtech:
"NVIDIA’s solution was to put 1GB on a 192-bit card anyhow... this is a 6 chip configuration, with NVIDIA using 4 1Gb chips and 2 2Gb chips... Our base assumption is that NVIDIA is using a memory interleaving mode similar to “flex” modes on desktop computers... As such NVIDIA would have the full 98.5GB/sec of memory bandwidth available across the first 768MB, while the last 256MB would be much more painful at 32.8GB/sec"
But with 12GB of Vram on a 256-bit bus with 9GB available for games and full memory speed. Remaining 3GB for OS but has lower memory bandwidth?
And this is when you switch from clamshell mode to non-clamshell mode on the 2GByte chips on both channels, putting the 1GByte chips onto high impedance.
As you say, it is really very complicated implementing such shenanigans and I doubt they are going to implement this.
I see either 16Gbyte on a 256bit bus or 24Gbyte on a 384bit bus, leaning towards the 16GByte solution which is obviously much cheaper. Also with the "superfast ssd" solution combined with improved memory compression technology leads me to think 16GByte will be enough memory for a console.
Microsoft showed us a CGI render film of scarlett, which did they did for Xbox one X and turned to be true. In the CGI render for Next-gen console we can see 8 chips ggdr6 modules/chips with mixture of both 1GB and 2GB Vram, but there might be 10 chips/modules based on the placement. Anymore than 10 Chips is unlikely based on what we can see in the film.
So you wrong on both assumption it's either 8/10 chips with a mixture of 1 and 2GB Vram.
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