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Well, it might be a decade. I am not expecting a new Mario Kart until the Switch's successor and that may be 2022, 2023. I expect that a new Mario Kart launches with the successor.

The other less likely scenario in my mind is that a new Mario Kart releases during the release of the other next gen consoles but all that would serve to do in my opinion is make another 15M+ selling piece of software, not gain much hardware market share. Which is why I think Nintendo saves a new Kart for the next Switch to push hardware very quickly and software very quickly. And not only quickly but overtime as well.