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0D0 said:
thismeintiel said:

Not really. There are people who bought PS4 in the first year or two. They are ready for next gen and wouldn't buy a PS4 over a PS5, regardless of how cheap the PS4 gets. These will make up the vast majority of PS5's early sales. The cheaper PS4 SKUs will be for budget gamers who wouldn't buy the PS5 til it also hits $199-$299, anyway.

I see, but with 3 playstations out, wouldn't be possible that devs would release ps5 games also for ps4 and ps4 pro and as a result keep even some ps4 early adopters unconvinced that they should upgrade?

I would assume this would come into play for some PS4 owners, but the early adopter crowd is likely to buy the new hardware as long as it's a reasonable price. $499 probably being the limit in terms of making it as accessible for as many as possible. This crowd has got to be 5-10 million or more. If PS4 and Pro are going to continue to exist because they are still being catered to, mostly by third party, then PS doesn't need to worry about the transition time. As long as they aren't losing a worrisome amount of existing PS4 owners to Switch or Lockhart/Anaconda, then PS can just continue to profit off PS4. If the PS5 is $499, the longer the transition takes, the more time they have to get the price down. It will change from having to have a PS5 for certain games, to buying a PS5 because the price has finally reached a point that makes sense to jump on board, plus some first party exclusives built up by then.

The other way to look at it, is that if MS has XB1S, XB1SAD, 'XB2L', 'XB2A', for PS to fully transition to PS5 and leave PS4 behind for the most part would be a huge gamble, and would likely turn out poorly for them. If you're an early adopter, but not all that wealthy and not a fan of any brand, are you going to buy a $499 PS5/'XB2A', or a $349 'XB2L'? Once a brand transition is made, it's likely that gamer is staying in that ecosystem for the duration of the gen, if not longer. PS in some ways can't afford to fully transition to next gen quickly. 

PS5 may very well end up a little bit like the PS2 to PS3 transition. Probably not quite as slow, and not a mile behind XB, trying to catch up again.