This is most likely going to be the Switch's best year, with the launch of new HW, possibly with a price cut, and Pokemon. That will be pretty much all of Nintendo's big guns fired. Maybe one more price cut. PS4 may not have too many big games launching this year, but it does have room for price cuts and may have another HW revision, as well. It will also see many cross-gen releases that will be on the PS5, as well, in the coming years. And considering the PS5 will most likely be $449-$499, budget gamers will be more inclined to buy a PS4 at $199, maybe eventually $149, to play those games. Nothing that will bring it back to its former glory years, but it will add to its legs.
Right now, the PS4 has a ~17.5M lead. It's going to take much more than a 2M-3M lead in its best year to make that kind of gap up.
All guns fired?
- This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
- Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
- Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.
Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.
As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).
And sorry to barge in in your discussion but I had to address this:
Errr.. Nintendo did only ONE price cut for the Wii U in its lifetime. And before you tell me that was because of costs, in the last 2.5 years they have refused to do even heavy promotions for the Switch. I mean, besides the $30 gift card, what other promotions have they done?
So I think you are being waaay too optimistic about those price cuts. BUT, on the other hand, I think they will follow the 3DS route and launch a cheaper version. So that should help a lot anyways.