Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.
After last year's numbers ... nah. Most of the potential market has probably bought a PS4 already for these games. That's not mentionning that Pokémon Sword/Shield is probably the flagship for Nintendo in November and they could also price drop the current model in case they announced a new one.
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