I'll hold my judgement on that until E3. If either Animal Crossing or Pokemon releases in November than I think Nintendo will win November even with a Sony pricecut that month.
Besides, there's no guarantee Nintendo doesn't also cut the pricetag around that time. Over 2 and a half years after release, they would already be pretty damn late for their first cut.
You do have a point. I forgot about pokemon and animal crossing. Nintendo could also release their rumored Switch revamp console.