Thanks for summarizing this. Much appreciated.
It looks like I am not the only one that thinks Nintendo is being too conservative. They are going to sell a lot more than 18 million Switches during the next fiscal year. Software is going to likewise be extremely strong. I can understand wanting to undershoot by a little, but undershooting by a lot is not good.
The original forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2018 was 10m and the actual result was 15m. That didn't hurt anyone.
They were in short supply at different times during that first year. It is better to have enough supply for everyone who wants to buy a Switch.