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Wyrdness said:
Farsala said:

3DS had good legs due to decent performance in all 3 regions. The Switch will blast 3DS in the Americas but fall behind in Japan. Let's compare Switch and 3DS, equal quarters.

Switch is 14.01m America, 8.23m Japan, and 12.50m Others. 34.74m Total

3DS was 10.26m America (38.7% of Current sales), 11.54m Japan (45.8%), and 9.29m (39.5%) Others. 31.09m (41.4%) Total.

Switch has a 3.65m lead. 3DS only shipped 12m next FY, while Nintendo predicts 18m for Switch. Clearly Switch will widen the lead.

As you can see at this point in its life (March 31, 2013), the 3DS has sold ~41.4% of its total sales. Its highest proportion of sales was due to frontloaded sales in Japan at 45.8%. I think Japan sales are usually frontloaded though, with the Switch lagging far behind in Japan but far ahead in America and Others. I think we could make a guess and assume some of the % that the Switch has sold so far of its LTD.

For example if we go with 37/40/39. Then we get 37.9m America, 20.5m Japan, and 32.05m Others. Giving 90.45m Total sales. Personally, I think that is a bit strong. At 90.45m it outsells the 3DS by 14m.

Switch is still at launch price while 3DS had already had a price cut at this point though the former is still in console price territory while 3DS not only had a price cut but also the XL version already released.

I hope Nintendo price cuts /redesigns the Switch as often as the 3DS, but don't expect many. I think they might only do it once.