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StarDoor said:
Amnesia said:

How do we explain that the PS4 for this quarter has shiped more than the Switch, when we could actually see the really far opposite result with at least Japan and NPD reports.
Even if VGC has overtracked the Switch in EU and RoW, it is not very logical.
The theory currently among some investors, is that Nintendo tried to reduce the stocks of the current model everywhere, with the goal in mind to replace a part of the transit stock with the new model coming soon.

Even if VGC adjusts the Switch lower...There is something weird here by reducing the transit stock that much, when the console was actually selling 26% faster than last year same quarter.

Yeah, I think it's likely that Nintendo is trying to reduce the number of units in transit to make way for a new model. It's definitely not overtracking: In their investor presentation, they acknowledged that sell-through in the March quarter was 35% up YoY in Japan/North America/Europe.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190426_3e.pdf

So even more weird...VGC tracked +26-27% for sales to consumers from 2018Q4 and 2019Q4, and Nintendo tracked* even much more.

*No offense to VGC, Nintendo's tracking methods might be even more accurate.

If I just apply a coef x1,35 on the last adjusted VGC 2018Q4 sales, I get this :