I think they will sell in the 18.5-19.5M range this year possibly and this year will be the peak year for Switch.
After that Nintendo basically runs low on new A-tier franchises, they'll have used up 3D Mario, Zelda, Pokmeon, Smash, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart (which is selling more like a regular iteration since most people didn't have a Wii U), Fire Emblem, and even 2D Mario is well represented with NSMUDX and Mario Maker 2.
The Mini model should be cheaper this year too, so I mean I think there's only so much price cuts are gonna do going past that.
That's part of the challenge Nintendo has ... they rely heavily on their A-tier franchises to sell systems, but usually by about year 3, they've used up most of those big guns. Of course they can make sequels like Mario Odyssey 2 or BOTW2 type stuff but the second time around it has a much lower effect on hardware because the fanbase for those games has already jumped on (especially when you see how well things like BOTW and Odyssey are selling).
If they don't have a true Pro model and just some lame New 3DS type revision for the base model, that hurts their long term sales projections going forward too. The Pro/X have helped the PS4/XB1 maintain sales, if Switch is really not going to have that, that's another thing the Switch doesn't get to benefit from and will likely have sales peak and then decline notably hard in year 4/5/6 as is the norm for Nintendo systems.
PS4 is likely going to outsell the Switch at 16.95M ... PS4 is forecast at 17.5M by Sony ... that just shows you, the very old PS4 is still outselling the much younger Switch, the PS4 Pro has a lot to do with the PS4 being able to maintain very good legs in the back half of its life cycle when it should be falling off.
Last edited by Soundwave - on 25 April 2019
