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Asriel said:
So despite sales to consumers being up year over year in both Japan and the US across January to March, Nintendo shipped fewer Switch units than the same quarter last year, when shipments were ~2.9 million - versus 2.47 million this year. Suggests retailers had some stock left from the huge Christmas shipments. You'd hope Nintendo learn their lesson and go for a more balanced sales curve this financial year. If the rumours are true and a hardware revision is coming in June with Mario Maker 2, then they should have stronger sales leading up to the Christmas season - especially if they get their hardware revision out in early June, giving a good boost to Q1 shipments and sales. If Mario Maker, Animal Crossing, Pokemon and hardware revisions are coming this year, you'd also expect them to exceed their 18 million target for the next FY.

Pokemon Let's Go software shipments were towards the lower end of the 'evergreen' titles - 600,000 units this quarter, so may not have the legs we expect from Pokemon - though it's probably going to sell similar amounts to third versions/remakes/sequels, and it is ultimately a remake. Compare that to Nintendo's other evergreen titles and it shipped slightly less than Super Mario Odyssey (~700,000 units) but more than Splatoon 2 (430,000 units). Impressively, Breath of the Wild shipped just over 1 million units this quarter, so continues its recent run of stronger quarterly sales than Mario. Super Mario Party shipped 1.1 million, another good result. Kart 8 DX shipped another 1.7 million copies - only slightly below Smash Ultimate's 1.8 million for the quarter.

It's not necessarily Nintendo's fault, though. It could just be that retailers ordered too many during the holiday season, expecting even more hype from PLG and Smash.