The 'modest upgrade' could simply be a slightly revised Nvidia processor - doesn't the current model have a flaw that can only be fixed with a hardware revision? There were a bunch of reports last year that the current Switch model could be made to run homebrew applications and pirated games thanks to a flaw in Nvidia's processor which couldn't be patched.
My suspicion is Nintendo are launching this Mini model to lower the price point (which makes sense ahead of Animal Crossing and Pokemon, and which makes sense in Japan in particular) and that the later model is simply a new base model for the Switch which has been redesigned to omit the exploit in the Tegra processor. I can't see Nintendo wanting to manufacture tens of millions more Switch units with a flaw that leaves the door open to software piracy.
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