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CosmicSex on 09 April 2019
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RolStoppable said:
CosmicSex said:

While I understand how sales curves work, it is also my belief that Nintendo will end, of it's own free will, the Switch.  I believe the rumors that say that there is a new version on the horizon.  That is why I insinuated that if we really treat it as a Pro then it will change the nature of the conversation.  

I hold that the Switch, in its current incarnation, will top out at 65 to 70 million before that happens.  An informed response would simply to suggest that the new model will in fact be a pro numbers and then I could have reevaluated.   

It sounds like we need to have a more grounded conversation where we try to understand each others projections or predictions. 

The source of said rumor - which talks about two revisions, one being an upgrade and one being a cheaper version - states that the upgraded version will not be like what Sony did with the PS4 Pro. This means no notable increase in processing power, because a bigger jump in processing power than the Pro can be ruled out due to Nintendo not going to phase out Switch after 2.5 years. But the main point is that regardless of what is speculated within reason, the rumored Switch revisions will be counted towards the grand total of Switch consoles sold.

Your speculation is not within reason, because you expect a Switch replacement after only 2.5 years when today's development times of video games can exceed such a timeframe. It makes no sense to move on with hardware faster than games can be made.

Nintendo is on record saying that it wants Switch to last till 2021 or 2022 at the latest.  If they support the Switch beyond that with a Pro model, then we can go higher than 65 million.  But outside of that you need to be asking yourself how much can they sell in the next 2 years.

My prediction makes more sense because I am listening to them and not to my imaginary beliefs.   

I think Nintendo's plan is to release a new system that will be both back compatible and competitive to some of the larger studios like Rockstar so that the next GTA will launch on it with Xbox and Playstation. 

The strategy is meant to keep their base and attract more mainline gamers who like COD and what not.