RolStoppable said:
There's no definitive answer here, because VGC's numbers are estimates and adjustments can be made to older quarters over time. My main point has been that you should be a bit more cautious with your expectations, because there are factors that make a fiscal year shipment total of 18m a stretch despite strong sell-through at the moment. In your graph you already have Switch's stock on shelves and in transit at 2.4m which is on the high side (you are actually missing Switch's launch quarter for the cumulative total of the gap between sell-through and shipments). The gap isn't going to increase with each passing quarter, because that's not how retailers work. It's more likely that the gap decreases by the end of this quarter, so if we go with your VGC projection of 3.46m sell-through for the quarter, shipments should be expected to be in the range of 3.1-3.3m rather than 3.6m. An example that might help here is that the PS4 had a gap of 3.7m at the end of calendar year 2016, according to Sony's own sell-through and shipment announcements. The January-March quarter of 2017 then had low shipments because retailers had to correct the amount of stock they carried. That's the kind of situation that leads to the occasional quarter where sell-through is greater than shipments. |
I would imagine that this quantity should keep increase (until a certain point ofcourse) until the console confirms that it has started the decline, which should be for FY2020 for the switch.
Also, do you have this quantity missing in my table ?
