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Amnesia on 17 March 2019
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RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

Ok, it was a mistake to only look at the gap on Q3 2018 and not the entire 30 millions. Plus I have revised my numbers, there are more gap now between sold Q3 and ship Q3.

So Why here we have such a huge gap, but now we would pretend that for 2018, VGC's estimation would be so much better :

FY 2017 ship : 15,06

FY 2017 sales : 13,51

So what gap shall we expect now if projection of FY2018 sold gives us 17,08 (my projection), why before we had 1,55M and now it would be much less ?

You are making the same mistake again. The proper comparison is always LTD sell-through vs. LTD shipments. The key point is that retailers tend to maintain a stock level that lasts them 6-8 weeks in order to be prepared for sudden surges in demand; if they ran out of consoles, a potential customer would do their business at a different store.

A console that sells 250k units per week worldwide will have a bigger gap between LTD sell-through and LTD shipments than a console that sells only 150k units per week. There are times when retailers over- or underestimate demand for a console, so the following fiscal quarter will see a correction due to retailer orders. VGC's estimates point to a slight overestimation, so for the current fiscal quarter sell-through can exceed shipments as retailers scale down the stock they have on shelves and in their warehouses.

So...

 

I have made a graph to see the evolution of the quantity in transit, we have seen that they theoriticaly shipped at every quarters a bit more than what was counted and adjusted here, except for the Q1 2018. So the transit quantity is increasing, and lately, the sales of the Switch has been surprising, I would guess that the stock in transit should keep increasing a little bit again... OR there will be a "lag" in the reaction to adapt the stock to the sales increase and they might announce an inferior shipment than what was sold for 2018 Q4 ?

 

Woudl be interesting to make the same grapho for 3-4 other consoles and see if there is a predictable behavior to this stock quantity. Could it be a rule here that the stock takes a hit at every Q1.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 17 March 2019