LTD shipments by December 31st 2018 were 32.27m, sell-through according to VGC was 29.48m by December 29th 2018. Adding a couple of extra days of sell-through leaves a gap of more than 2.5m units, but Switch's stock level should be ~2m based on how much it sells per week and in how many countries the console is officially available in. Retailers tend to have stock that lasts them 6-8 weeks and they place new orders accordingly.
In order for shipments and sell-through to be equal for the current quarter, VGC's LTD estimate by the end of 2018 has to be wrong. Which is possible, but I said "if we go by VGC" and that means as much as "assuming that VGC's numbers are correct," so that's what the rest of my post goes with.
I see that you've been talking about fiscal year shipments as high as 18m, but that's not going to happen if VGC estimates are reasonably accurate. A note on forecasts: In the range that Switch sells, adjustments are made in increments of 0.5m, so Nintendo could have gone with 17.5m for their revised forecast. The reason why they adjusted down to 17.0m is that it looks really bad when a company can't even fulfill a revised forecast with only three months left in the fiscal year. Nintendo had to ask themselves if they are absolutely 100% sure that they can hit 3m in fiscal Q4 and they weren't confident that they could do it.
Ok, it was a mistake to only look at the gap on Q3 2018 and not the entire 30 millions. Plus I have revised my numbers, there are more gap now between sold Q3 and ship Q3.
So Why here we have such a huge gap, but now we would pretend that for 2018, VGC's estimation would be so much better :
FY 2017 ship : 15,06
FY 2017 sales : 13,51
So what gap shall we expect now if projection of FY2018 sold gives us 17,08 (my projection), why before we had 1,55M and now it would be much less ?
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