Non sens or I just don't know math anymore at all...That's the opposite of what you say : sales have almost eaten the 9,42M shipped my Nintendo
Plus, we are seeing now for no reason( no big new game, no price cut), a powerfull increase to a baseline at 250.000, from 200.000 last year, I would order actually more units in anticipation if I was a video game retailer.
LTD shipments by December 31st 2018 were 32.27m, sell-through according to VGC was 29.48m by December 29th 2018. Adding a couple of extra days of sell-through leaves a gap of more than 2.5m units, but Switch's stock level should be ~2m based on how much it sells per week and in how many countries the console is officially available in. Retailers tend to have stock that lasts them 6-8 weeks and they place new orders accordingly.
In order for shipments and sell-through to be equal for the current quarter, VGC's LTD estimate by the end of 2018 has to be wrong. Which is possible, but I said "if we go by VGC" and that means as much as "assuming that VGC's numbers are correct," so that's what the rest of my post goes with.
I see that you've been talking about fiscal year shipments as high as 18m, but that's not going to happen if VGC estimates are reasonably accurate. A note on forecasts: In the range that Switch sells, adjustments are made in increments of 0.5m, so Nintendo could have gone with 17.5m for their revised forecast. The reason why they adjusted down to 17.0m is that it looks really bad when a company can't even fulfill a revised forecast with only three months left in the fiscal year. Nintendo had to ask themselves if they are absolutely 100% sure that they can hit 3m in fiscal Q4 and they weren't confident that they could do it.