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I rather think this coming generation may end up looking a lot more like the PS3/360/Wii one than the current gen.

It seems unlikely Microsoft will faceplant out of the gate this time and they appear to be making all of the right moves to be more competitive going forward. Nintendo has also found that unique offering (portability this time) that will help them stand out, except that this time it seems less likely to grow stale with gamers than motion controls did.

We really won't know until we officially see what the new Xbox/PS will look like/be priced at (as well as whatever midgen upgrade Nintendo is planning), but at the moment I think both will be bigger competitors for Sony than they were in the current gen. It seems unlikely that we'll see anyone with 50%+ of the market share long term, though the Switch will certainly have a head start initially.