Brexit

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's patently wrong. In fact, quite the reverse. They are forced to call a poll when nationalist parties win an election (start at 2:00 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIJzc0FiVHA

Looks like it was pretty prophetic, half a year later. And as you can see in the Video, Nationalist parties are closing the gap fast. In fact, the 2017 election is the first one where Unionist parties total dropped below 50%

Even formerly staunch unionists are now thinking about leaving the UK and becoming part of Ireland::

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

If Nationalist parties win the next election in Northern Ireland, then they have no choice but call a poll, as they are obliged to by the Good Friday Agreement. The next election is in less than 2 months (May 2nd, same as in England), and I don't think the DUP will be able to win that one considering the voters seem to move away from them.

The material you posted is irrelevant at hand ... 

Ireland will most likely cave into the EU's demands and will pull out of the agreement as accordingly before any poll is even called. Also it's unlikely that the nationalists will come out on top as the unionists won the total share of votes by a 7% point margin during the last general election so what do you think 2 years will buy you ? 

Also, if you truly thought that the DUP voters were on the fence before they most likely wouldn't contemplate voting for Sinn Fein or even the SDLP. It's far more likely that they'd go back to the UUP or possibly vote non-sectarian parties like Alliance but the reason why DUP exists is because is because the voters thought that the UUP didn't have a strong enough resolution so when they voted for the DUP they were not looking to settle Brexit and are intending to settle Northern Ireland's status of sovereignty immediately. You'll be be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates within the DUP ... 

If the DUP and the other unionists can hold out for for a couple of more years then they'll have inevitably won since then even after if they become the minority later on. Either the EU gives into the demands of the UK or they can kiss goodbye to the idea of a united Ireland. The UK is not stipulated in the GFA to align with either the EU or Ireland in terms of customs policy so they do not intend to make conditions simple for reunification. The ball is either in the EU or in Ireland's court to see a united Ireland ... 

@bolded: That's the Brexiteers tactic, not understanding that the EU doesn't just stand for an economic union, but also for common values and standards. Hence why they can't fathom why the EU is willing to take an economic hit instead of relenting on their demands. But Ireland won't pull out. Besides that wouldn't remove the border with the UK anytime soon. And going by Brexit, at the time the UK Parliament finally would have agreed on opening the border to ireland, both Northern Ireland and Scotland would have long left the Union. Seriously they can't seem to stop bickering even if their Life was on the line.

@Italic: Plenty, and just because of Brexit. A recent poll showed that the Nationalists would win over 60% of the popular vote now as also the NI economy is heavily dependent on the open border to Ireland. A hard brexit is a death sentence for almost half the economy there. Also, over 50% want a poll if there's no deal. Just quoting some passages so you'll see why Brexit is so much of a dealbreaker for Northern ireland:

"Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.

In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.

Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland."

So as you can see, Brexit is the reason why Northern Ireland is swinging into leaving the Union. And that goes for all, Nationalists, Unionists and those who remain neutral between the 2. To quote again:

"Only around three quarters (73%) of those from a nationalist background said they would support a united Ireland if Brexit was avoided - compared to 94% wanting to leave the UK after Brexit.

Some 59% of those who didn't consider themselves unionist or nationalist supported a united Ireland after Brexit, but this dropped to 23% if Brexit was avoided."

Oh, and the Irish are in already, over 73% want a reunited Republic of Ireland.

About the rest: You are aware that the support for the Unionists is shrinking for decades, right? In the 70's Unionist parties claimed over 70% of the vote, but they were sliding under 50% in the last election. And Brexit certainly erodes even more of their voter base, as shown above. Like they said in the videos in the previous post, nationalist Catholics are outgrowing the unionist Protestants and surpassing them in more and more parts of NI.

Of course, that's all with a hard Brexit incoming. With a last minute Brexit deal with the EU I'm fairly sure the DUP could continue their reign, if barely, and thus avoid a NIxit and later Scoxit.