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With Mario Maker, Animal Crossing and Pokemon (+ Fire Emblem and Dragon Quest in Japan) as the major system sellers of the year, I think they're going to go for 20 million again with even more confidence that they'll reach the goal.

If Japan is anything to go by, the Switch should be noticeably up YoY so far and with Mario Maker being the big, blockbuster, Summer title for this year, that game along with Fire Emblem should carry the Switch up considerably YoY from June through August. Then September through December is where it'll get really interesting, because somewhere within that time, if all goes as planned, we should get Luigi's Mansion 3, Link's Awakening, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon Gen 8 coming out. If you thought last year's holiday lineup with Super Mario Party, Pokemon Let's Go, and Smash Bros. Ultimate was great, that wouldn't even compare to this year's lineup if those four games are the ones we get!

Nintendo has all the pieces they need to put that 20 million puzzle together this year. If they don't screw it up, they should reach it.