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Politics Discussion - Brexit - View Post

fatslob-:O said:
Scoobes said:

So, just to be clear, you're in the Patrick Minford school of thought? You're happy to go tariff-free on WTO rules meaning we import from the EU and from all countries around the World tariff free and effectively destroy our agricultural sector in the UK? You get that just because we make imports tariff free doesn't mean anyone else has to reciprocate (and in fact no one would as that would mean opening up all global markets and damaging their own industries)?

So you're quite happy to completely destroy an entire industry in the UK and suffer the numerous job losses (not to mention loss in tax revenue) that would result from that?

How do you think we're going to get free trade deals with anyone if we're already tariff free? What would we use as negotiating leverage if everyone else can export whatever they want to us with no import tariffs but our farmers still need to pay tariffs to export around the World?

And EU foods are overpriced? You get that they're our nearest neighbors so even if production and regulatory costs are higher (although the EU has one of the largest free trade networks in the World so a number of Countries are already having to meet those standards), transport is immensely cheaper, especially for foods with a short shelf life.

You also get that UK has been a part of the EU in the development of the food/agricultural regulations? The UK voted for nearly all those regulatory standards in.

@Bold Can just use article 21 in that case to apply for an exemption ... 

As far as 'destroying' an industry is concerned, Britain stands to make FAR MORE money by undercutting European producers through a backdoor than to keep subsidizing ANY sort of agriculture because France, Germany, and Spain takes most of the CAP funding ... (with no deal the British should come to Ireland with these cheap imported goods and look at all the profit they'll rake in by selling contraband to a very big market) 

1. As far as free trade 'deals' are concerned, the backdoor would only be available to the UK because of WTO article 21. The UK should use this advantage to gain the best trade deals among the most desperate bidders (poor countries) ... 

2. Even with the shortest shipping routes, food is still more expensive because the EU employs less productive methods of agriculture. It's stupid to be fear mongering about hormone treated beef, chlorinated chicken or GMOs when the likes of Canada has genetically modified fish for sale such as the AquAdvantage salmon from AquaBounty Technologies. Transport costs won't matter much when your food takes 2-3x longer to grow or if the labour costs outweigh productivity. If the EU is going to be a protectionist market then it should strive to grow to be globally competitive but now that we're on the cusp of a "big data/machine learning revolution" when they go backwards by implementing data protection laws which is a shame because they'll be missing out on the potential of a growing sector for years ... 

Yes the UK has been a part of EU development but it's been one mistakes after another either from the UK's own politicians (3. Blair goofed up when he imposed no freedom of movement controls) or from EU politicians (letting Greece enter the eurozone, migrant crisis, etc) until that faithful day where David Cameron showed light (Referendum) at the end of the tunnel (Brexit) so now Britain can finally right the many wrongs the EU has caused by punishing the rotten project that's at the brink anyway ... (Ireland will soon be forced to choose either in the name of 'solidarity' or 'reunification') 

The EU had 43 years to prove to itself that it can show the goods but enough is enough ... 

Can you point to the exact part of article 21 that you're referring to?

The way I see it, the UK can apply but there is no guarantee the WTO will accept.

Also, the contraband idea is ridiculous. In the no deal situation it is in both the EU and Ireland's interests to apply customs checks to protect local industries and the integrity of the single market. Who do you think would be willing to risk trying smuggling goods into Ireland in that situation? The few economists that support the idea of going tariff-free after brexit have all said it would destroy the UK agricultural and manufacturing sectors and that they support the economic "re-calibration".

@bolded1

You realise we already import tariff-free with the world's poorest countries via the EU under the 'Everything but Arms' initiative? Striking trade deals with these countries would only bring us back to the current status-quo.

@bolded2

Do you have anything to support the claim that these costs will be higher then the cost of transport. Also, how exactly do you expect us to get cheap, fresh and perishable produce from outside the EU?

@bolded3

UK have had ample opportunities to apply immigration restrictions from the EU after Blair. No government has bothered as it brings in a over 10-fold more tax revenue than it costs.

You also realise we've barely scratched the surface of the 759 international treaties we get via the EU and would lose and have to re-negotiate in the event of no deal. These cover a lot more than just trade.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1435a8e-372b-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e