Brexit

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

I can only shake my head in front of so much wrongness

1. Read again what I posted and linked. Ireland has every right under the GFA to close the borders as long as it's not getting remilitarized. Same goes for the UK btw. I bolded the part above too that you are very wrong about but insist on and build your entire thesis on.

2. No deal is already on the way for precipitating a vote in northern Ireland to leave the UK and become part of Ireland again, as you can read in the link above.

3. UK already stated months ago that they will copy the EU schedules, which are the tariffs and quotas the EU applies to countries they have no trade deal with, and I quote:"In almost all cases, the UK simply took the tariffs in the EU's schedule and copy pasted it across with 'United Kingdom' at the top. In fact, it did not change the actual maximum tariff level on any lines (product types).". So in other words, no tariff- and quote-free trade with other countries. The UK could do that... but that would most probably come at the expense of pretty much everything that gets produced on the Island, so you can be certain industrials and agrarians would not accept that.

4. No, UK will not have access to the single market in any way with a hard brexit, get your facts right. Why do you think UK is planning parking zones for trucks to be controlled at the borders and why the EU is horing people and buying stuff at the 3 main points of entry fron the UK (Northern Ireland border, Calais and Rotterdam).

5. TLDR doesn't state the bolded because that's not a thing ffs! Also, you can be pretty damn sure every nation in the world would look down on the UK if they would even just try to smuggle and put an embargo on the Island until that practice ends. In fact, that's a surefire way to make Northern Ireland leave and reunify with Ireland out of protest, to say nothing about Scotland and potentially even Wales.

6. About the NI secretary of the State insisting conditions for a border poll not being met, just hours later the DUP sent out letters urging Unionists for voter registration "to save the Union", meaning they are well aware that a poll can happen very soon and was trying to downplay the vote and avoid Republicans to go register already to stack the chances against Northern Ireland reunion. So yeah, chances are you can kiss Northern Ireland goodbye after that vote now, and it will happen very soon.

You know that you're in denial ...  

1. If that is so then why MUST the EU insist on an Irish backstop ? You STILL haven't answered the key question yet and that is will Ireland institute customs checks at the Irish border in a no deal scenario ? If you can't guarantee that it WON'T violate the GFA then stop discussing this and I suggest you start finding the answer ... (the UK WILL NOT have a customs union with the EU and that's final since May's deal was voted down for the same reason) 

2. Only the Northern Ireland's Secretary of State can determine when a border poll is appropriate ... 

3. Is that contingent on getting a deal ? What about the case of no deal ?  

4. I don't see how that's possible without Ireland at the very least installing a customs checkpoint at the border and looking back ANY sort of physical barrier will inevitably lead to remilitarization because it's not going to be the unionist forces who will target Ireland's customs checks but it will be the nationalist forces who will probably target them thus calling Irish forces to arms! It's become even more clear after the ramifications that a customs check is impossible to uphold the GFA in historic light so either Ireland needs to take responsibility for the fact that it's giving Britain a backdoor or prioritize staying inside the customs union which will lead to eventually breaking the GFA. Logic can only conclude that that upholding the GFA and meeting customs union standards are MUTALLY EXCLUSIVE ... (Ireland is FORCED to choose between the two as it CAN'T have both) 

5. It pretty much is since Leo Varadkar keeps insisting that there won't be ANY customs checks! Your claim is in contradiction with Leo's. LOL, you won't even rule out the possibility of smuggling so you think the entire world will somehow threaten to sanction the UK ? China along with many other poorer nations will not care about the fact that the UK is smuggling their shit inside the EU when they stand to make some cash in the process too LMAO ... (I told you the WTO is toothless and TLDR doesn't reciprocate the obvious because he's just plain biased) 

The Conservatives are right in that they have the leverage in this case to either wreck the EU market or amputate Ireland from the EU customs union so they won't take off no deal because there's a possible path to thrive or to inflict great amount of damage upon a state. Ireland overplayed their hand and now they'll feel the repercussions ... 

6. The only problem with your plan is Northern Ireland's Secretary of State has the final say and if she says so then that's the end of it so calls from either Sinn Fein or the DUP mean nothing ... 

Since the DUP practically holds Theresa May at gunpoint who appoints Northern Ireland's Secretary of State, I don't think the possibility of a border poll is open at least until the next general election and by then Ireland is sure to get kicked out of the EU customs union before Theresa May serves the end of her current term so there might not even be a border poll during the next term ... 

1. The backstop id just in case of a Brexit with a deal, since this includes a 22 month transition period. The Backstop id for the transition period, not for the Brexit itself. A no-Deal Brexit nullifies the need of the Backstop.

2. True. It is also explicitly her duty to call for such a poll when the people wants to become part of Ireland. In other words, it's time to plan if she wants to act on her duty. On a somewhat related and sad side, it looks like Brexit could refuel the Troubles even without any hard border: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/security-situation-in-northern-ireland

3. Deal or no deal, that doesn't change anything here. In fact, the UK already implemented them and several countries already protested against them (New Zealand and Taiwan at least for my knowledge, but there might very well be more)

4. I literally facepalmed when I read that. That's just border controls, not a fucking Berlin Wall. Besides, if a physical barrier inevitably leads to militarization, how come the European borders were not controlled by military force for decades before the Schengen agreement? Or that there's no military presence at the EU borders? Maybe because in inevitably leading to militarization is complete bullshit? Pretty much! Ireland can with no problems at all choose both the Customs Union and uphold the GFA. There's a clear difference between not wanting to do something and not being able to do so.

5. Leo is believing that an agreement can still be found, thus clinging on the backstop agreement. But I think we both agree here that there will be no deal Brexit. But I agree the Taoiseach is getting increasingly desperate as he tinks the backstop is the only solution... hence why he urges the UK time and again to accept the 585 page-long deal, as without a deal, no backstop either. One must note thought that until two weeks ago, May also urged the parliament in favor of the backstop, the fact that she's not doing that anymore just shows that the parliament isn't willing for it and the EU won't renegotiate the deal. We'll see in the coming days how Leo's position will evolve I guess.

6. Look at number 2

And if you don't know by now that you're in total denial, not everything collapsing around you could point you in the right direction