Brexit

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Again, what's with all that smuggling nonsense?

Also, not wanting a hard border is becasuse of the Troubles potentially resparking in Northern Ireland and has nothing directly to do with Ireland proper, but the unionists and the nationalists

And, like I said, if a hard Brexit comes, and it's on the best way to get there really, border controls will happen there no matter what. It's actually required under WTO rules.

It has EVERYTHING to do with Ireland if it wants to keep reunification on the table with Northern Ireland. It is because of the nationalist forces in Northern Ireland that Ireland itself has a stake in it all ...

As for the WTO, article 21 states that an exemption can be made for reasons such as national security so the UK can make a strong legal case that it doesn't have to put up a border on their side if they don't want to. The WTO has tons of holes in it and they don't specifically say that a nation needs to police it's border, it just doesn't have to discriminate other nations if it has no trade deals ... 

I agree that a border might be required but this time it's the EU or Ireland that has to draw the line because the UK clearly won't ...  

Bofferbrauer2 said: 

1. What bullshit are you blabbering there?

The UK will, after a hard Brexit, only be able to import through WTO rules. And that means anybody whom the UK wants to import their goods from has a say about it. In fact, it's possible that the UK won't be able to import at all at first as the WTO schedules (the rules by which a country trades) need to be agreed upon by all WTO members, so until there's an agreement there it's possible no trade is possible (though I expect that those who agree on it will go by the schedules, which are the schedules the EU is using for the countries the EU has no trade agreement - all 12 (soon 13) of them. Importing unilaterally is impossible due to WTO's non-discriminatory rules: If the UK doesn't want to control the goods coming in from Ireland, than they can't control the other borders either as everybody under WTO rules needs to be treated equally.

Oh, and every market is somewhat protectionist, every single country has tariffs. In fact, by comparison the tariffs of the EU are rather low and since 2015 tariff barriers on (non-GMO) food had been successively reduced

3. Again, what are you talking about smuggling all the time? Also, keep in mind that the EU is a net exporter as a whole, but the UK is a net importer (especially on food, but by far not the only commodity the UK is importing en masse), so it's rather up to the UK to be concerned about smuggling. But look again what I wrote above about the barriers... Also, what about article 7? Just to quote: Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union is a procedure in the treaties of the European Union (EU) to suspend certain rights from a member state. While rights can be suspended, there is no mechanism to expel a member  so what's you (moot) point anyway?

Yes, a hard border can be avoided by Ireland by leaving the EU and getting back under the UK thumb. But guess what: That's just what they are avoiding for 100 years now. So, again, moot.

Oh, and about the reunification: I'd rather say the UK can soon kiss the UK goodbye, as I don't think the Scots or the Norther Eire (who both vote remain I might add) will want to stay in the UK any much longer, especially not with all the problems a no-deal poses on the population.

1. The UK can abuse a loophole (having it's own import controls) with a backdoor being available (no Irish border) which means far cheaper goods entering inside the EU and they can use article 21 as their defense ... 

3. I talk about smuggling because it's an absolutely important issue and the EU seems to think so too because quite a few of it's member states are afraid as fuck that their economy isn't all that competitive in the global market so they have to resort to putting tariffs or most importantly high regulations on imports. Think about it for a moment what will happen to the EU's agriculture sector if the UK is able to sell cheaper produce to EU consumers ? It's specifically because the EU has a trade surplus with the UK that they should be worried most about smuggling since the UK won't have to buy overpriced European crap and the fact that they can undercut European producers by reselling those imported goods which means that the EU could very well see a trade deficit with the UK instead all the while not being an EU member! (the EU seems to understand this risk unlike you) The UK will be fine with smuggling from the EU since it had to prop up their less productive economy for a while so they aren't going to buy the EU's overpriced crap but the EU on the other hand is going to face a shitstorm if Ireland allows cheap UK imports into it's own market. With Article 7, the EU could in theory suspend Ireland's right to participate in the single market and customs union ... 

@Bold I didn't imply that so that's just a straw man on your part. Ireland will be forced out of the single market and customs because I doubt the EU will tolerate smuggling from the UK ... 

As for your last sentence, the likewise applies to Ireland with the EU SM/CU so why would Northern Ireland want to join a soon to be even poorer nation after no deal when the UK gives it a shit ton of subsidies ? Could Ireland afford Northern Ireland after no deal happens AND when they get the boot from the EU ?  

1. The UK having it's own import controls is just that: import controls. For everything that goes out that way, Ireland will have to set up their own import controls, and until those are set, no trade can go through. The EU is already preparing in Ireland, Calais and Rotterdam for these additional controls, the booths just need to be set up and the goods controlled. The UK is also buying scanners and the like, and planning huge parking lots because the trucks will have to wait their turn

Problem with your Article 21 theory is that it is an agreement, meaning that both the UK and the EU would need to agree on that - and that can still be shot down, especially after calling out the US for using a similar reason for taxing EU steel imports as that would make the EU and the UK look like massive hypocrites. So, not really an option.

@bolded: Thanks for the joke, I really needed a good laugh.

In case you don't know, the UK is importing vast amounts of foods and only exporting very little of it, though I agree that most of those go to Ireland. Much more likely will be that the UK won't have any food left to export or smuggle anyway, all while Ireland can source their food from the rest of the EU.

Also, why do you think UK food will be cheaper? With the EU subsidies falling away it can only get more expensive except a similar amount of subsidies will get applied by the UK - if a no-deal doesn't outright kill parts of the industry . You call EU food overpriced, but why do you think the UK supermarkets are full of them? Right, because UK foods are not cheaper, but more expensive, safe for some fish and a couple cheeses that are not popular in mainland Europe. Why do you think the UK is stockpiling food left, right and center, among other things, like medicine while they still can (and that won't come cheap btw)? Certainly not because the UK has any surplus of it. In fact, the UK is only 60% self-sufficient, meaning almost half of the food needs to be imported; and a whooping 70% of those food imports come from the EU. Btw, there's no tariff on these food imports, but the mean WTO value is 22%

The problem in that BBC article is not smuggling, but frigging normal trade! Because like Is said, everything coming in and out of NI through Ireland needs to be scanned and registered the same way as the EU with all other countries the EU has no trade agreement with

Oh, and if you come with such theories, please make them at least coherent.

And yes, you implied that bolded plenty. And no, Ireland will certainly not as dumb as the UK to leave. And again, there's no way for the EU to force out anybody. Even better, Ireland is going to Veto if the UK wants their cake and eat it too as usual.