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colafitte on 04 February 2019
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MasonADC said:
colafitte said:

Oh no, you said you expected 18-19M "at least" by your own words back then when i always said 17-18M at most..You were pretty convinced Switch was capable of doing 20M shipped and i was pretty convined it was going to ship way less than that, don't backpedal now!!. 

I didn't ingnored any comments. Why always says to me that i'm not listening, or i am not getting the point???, ... I AM!!, believe me!!..XDD. Is just that i don't expect any of those games to sell better than Smash+Pokemon 2018+Mario Party combo from 2018, or do you really think the 3 best selling games from Switch in 2019 will surpass the 3 best selling games of 2018? In my case, i don't.

And the $50 price wil make a boost, a boost of 1-1'5M, like i said, but not much more.

How i'm not going to know what i'm talking about if i have been correct in what i expected for Switch this last quarter almost perfectly, (Shipments and VGC sales)????, please don't understimate my opinion like this...I think i deserve some benefit of the doubt at least, don't you think?.

Price cuts are used to avoid selling/profiting less. If you are selling on expectations or even better, you don't low the price, period. 99% of the games in the market low the price after a few months. Nintendo games don't, why??, because they don't need to. The same reason applies here for hardware. Price dops in other consoles never served to jump sales 20-30% from a previous year if that console was already selling well. The times when that happened were when the console was underachieving expectations (3ds in 2011 or PS3 back then in 2008 and 2009). Switch is not doing that. I think sales will be affected this year if there is no price cut. That's why i think there will be a price cut in the line this year (if it's not a revision), and why i expect 17-17'5M (maybe even 18M) shipped this year. If, for whatever reason, Nintendo decides not cutting the price because they feel they don't need to, i'm pretty sure Switch will sell less in 2019 than in 2018.

In summary:

No price cut/revision : Switch ships 16M FY2019

$50 price cut/revision: Switch ships 17-18M FY 2019 (this is my personal bet).

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Switch doing extremely fine if they sell the same or even a 5% better than last year. Nintendo really happy with that and software/service profits.

 

This is just my opinion, based in recent and old trajectories from Switch, other Nintendo consoles and the situation of the market in 2019. You are not going to convince me otherwise. So, like always, we should stop here, and we will see who is right in the end.

Game freak has said many times now that Pokémon will launch in late 2019

I'm not saying i am not expecting the game this year, in fact i do,  i only stated that still needs to be confirmed with a name and a date. It won't be the first game, even from Nintendo, getting delayed in similar fashion.

StarDoor said:
colafitte said: 

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Here are the sales for the relevant 3DS titles:

Pokemon X/Y - 16.37M
Pokemon Sun/Moon - 16.14M
Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire - 14.17M

Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 12.10M
Super Smash Bros for 3DS - 9.45M

Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon - 5.75M
Fire Emblem Fates - 2.85M
Mario Party: Island Tour - 2.68M

On Nintendo's previous handheld, Animal Crossing was bigger than Smash and both Luigi's Mansion and Fire Emblem were individually bigger than Mario Party, so it's strange how confident you are that 2018's lineup has more selling potential than 2019's. Unless you think that Pokemon Let's Go will sell more than Pokemon Gen 8, but I don't think even the most desperate detractors would argue something like that.

I'm very curious: How much do you think 2019's games will have shipped by the end of the year? In particular, Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Fire Emblem: Three Houses.

I don't know how much all thsee games will sell combined, but if you ask me those individually ....let me think....

Just in 2019 (shipment numbers):

Animal Crossing, no more than 10M (more difficult to know because it depends on when it launch)

Pokemon Gen 8 around 12-15M (if it launch in November)

Luigi's Mansion less than 5M but getting close

Fire Emblem just around 2M.

 

But some of these game depends on when they launch, so it's difficult to know exactly. If i knew the dates i would be more specific.